Early Italian elections still possible

Last Tuesday will go down in the history of the Second Italian Republic as the afternoon of urban guerrilla warfare in the streets of Rome and Silvio Berlusconi’s defeat of a no confidence motion in Parliament by a mere three votes.

Tension during the day built up to a climax with the throwing of paper bombs, bottles and other objects at armoured police cars. An escalation of hostilities led to an out and out devastation in Rome’s historic centre where university students, members of social centres, earthquake-stricken residents of L’Aquila and groups of Neapolitans fed up with the waste-disposal crisis had agreed to meet. In short, opposition to the government had taken to the streets of Rome on the very day a motion of no confidence in the government presented by the opposition parties was being debated.

It had to be the day the government fell. But it turned out not to be. As soon as Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s legitimate victory in the Senate and in the Chamber of Deputies on the no confidence motion became known, columns of black smoke could be seen rising between the churches in Piazza del Popolo. Everything seemed to be going according to a well organised plan to provoke a political crisis which for some time had been brewing in Parliament. On the contrary, the demonstration was used by a small, out-of-control Black Block minority, which infiltrated a march to demonstrate outside the corridors of power: the Chamber, the Senate, the Prime Minister’s office and the private residence of Mr Berlusconi.

Tensions were running high, even in Parliament. In fact, scuffles broke out among some MPs and the Speaker, Gianfranco Fini, at one point had to suspend the sitting for a few minutes.

Mr Berlusconi’s government won the showdown in Parliament by 314 votes to 311 while in the streets there were about 100 injured including demonstrators and policemen.

The government crisis, which started with the withdrawal of ministers and parliamentary secretaries loyal to Mr Fini, had actually begun before the summer with a serious clash among the leadership inside the ruling majority. More than a political clash it appeared to be a clash of personalities between Mr Fini and Mr Berlusconi, joint founders of the People of Freedoms, which formed the government together with Umberto Bossi’s Northern League. Then came the split, which was irreparable. To many centre-right voters, it seemed incomprehensible.

Mr Fini has since set up his own party, Future and Freedom, putting together, in slightly over three months, a no confidence motion in the government, supported by the parties led by Pier Ferdinando Casini and Francesco Rutelli, a former candidate of the centre-left in the general election after militating for a long time in the Radical Party.

In brief, the no confidence motion was meant to bring about Mr Berlusconi’s resignation and the formation of a new centre-right government without him but including these political parties.

Mr Berlusconi has won and Mr Fini has lost. The long day of truth has had a positive outcome for the Prime Minister. After the vote in Parliament and his meeting at the Quirinal with President Giorgio Napolitano, Mr Berlusconi commented on his success in Parliament, stressing there was no alternative to the present majority but going on to explain there was the chance of strengthening the majority further “and substantially”, making an overture to the Union of the Centre, the patty led by Mr Casini.

As regards Mr Fini, Mr Berlusconi was categorical: “All talks with him are off”. However, despite his defeat, Mr Fini has insisted he would not be resigning as Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, while the Northern League, for its part, is again insisting on early elections in order to clarify the situation both politically and in Parliament.

The Italian Left, lacking an effective leader and divided from within, seems to be out of the picture: perhaps it was not even present on the streets as the demonstrators expressed their anger at the present situation, the will to preserve perceived rights obtained in the past but not the hope for a better future.

Wilful destruction, grudges and hardly placated hatred – all have been evident on the streets and in Parliament. The Italian political situation is still to be clarified: despite the majority obtained in Parliament by Mr Berlusconi’s government, there is still the possibility of early elections, which most people expect to be held in the spring of 2011.