After the dark clouds and last year’s green shoots, economists say the economy is out of the woods but they also speak of a new reality: Uneven growth.

In the face of economic data showing growth of almost four per cent between April and June, economists have given the signal that the recession is over, more than a year after green shoots started to appear.

Economists agreed that the latest National Statistics Office figures, which showed two consecutive quarters of strong growth, were a confirmation that the economy was now out of the woods.

The end of the recession was welcomed by economist Karm Farrugia, who, writing in The Times on Monday, greeted the news with the words: “Bye, bye recession... hello recovery”.

“We can now safely assume that the recession is behind us,” Mr Farrugia said, commenting on data that showed growth in the second quarter of 3.9 per cent when compared to the same period last year. Revised figures for the first quarter also showed growth of 4.2 per cent.

However, a deeper analysis shows that growth has not been uniform across all econo-mic sectors, which, according to economist Lawrence Zammit, is a reflection of the new rea-lity developing in many economies.

“The latest data is good news but, like other countries, we are experiencing the phenomenon of uneven growth. Some sectors are growing and doing really well while others are not feeling this positive development and this is a reality we have to understand,” Mr Zammit said.

If one were to judge growth by the sale of iPhones or people who eat at restaurants, the economy would be soaring, he said, adding this was only one aspect of a more complex reality.

Indeed, the prospect of a multi-speed economy is also visible at a European level. Not all eurozone countries have benefitted from the recovery in the same way.

“Growth is not uniform across all sectors and this is a reflection of the constant change domestically and abroad. We can also witness this at a European level with uneven growth among eurozone countries. While Italy is stuttering, Germany is recovering,” Mr Zammit said.

The GDP figures come hot on the heels of employment data that shows an increase in part time jobs and a drop in full time employment. This indicates that the job market is still on shaky ground despite economic growth.

Mr Zammit insisted this was also a reflection of the phenomenon of uneven growth and it was imperative for policy makers to understand this reality to help them take the right decisions.

In similar vein, economist Joe Vella Bonnici welcomed the good news but highlighted the fact that some sectors were booming while others were still facing problems.

The NSO figures show that, while sectors such as manufacturing, retail, hotels and restaurants, construction and real estate exhibited growth in value added, others like communication, transport, storage, agriculture and fisheries experienced a decline.

“The figures show we are out of the woods but this does not mean everything is plain sailing.

There are still a number of structural challenges in the economy that we have to address irrespective of whether the recession is over,” Mr Vella Bonnici said.

Taking a leaf from the pre-Budget document, he said there were issues of sustainability in public finances and the maximisation of Malta’s export potential, which had to be addressed.

“The pre-Budget document does recognise these problems and I agree with its analysis. We have to address the structural issues otherwise it will be very difficult to make the qualitative leap our economy requires,” he said.

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