The writing is on the water

This year has been an exceptionally difficult one for Poland. First, a tragic plane crash that almost wiped out the country’s leaders. Now, the recent flooding of central Europe included Poland among its victims.

The year has been so exceptional that it is strange to suggest that there might be more general implications and consequences. I believe, however, that there could be. For Poland and for Europe, the writing could be not on the wall but, this time, on the water.

We know, for example, from the floods in Pakistan, that they may serve to rehabilitate the army (which has been organising the relief operations) in terms of popular trust, while damaging popular trust in the civilian government, which has been seen as aloof.

In the Polish case, even though there have been relatively few deaths, hundreds of homes were damaged. On the German border with Poland, the Neisse river rose by over seven metres – more than double the norm.

That rise occurred over three hours, as the torrents of flood water took over towns like Bogatynia, with thousands of people needing evacuation. A firefighter nearing retirement age was swept away by the waters as the banks of a dyke burst.

The disaster had a political dimension. German border towns were also affected. The historic town Bad Muskau was one of them. The authorities in Saxony claim that they were not given sufficient warning that a dam in Poland had burst.

The internal and international tensions caused by this disaster will be a test for the newly invigorated Polish government.

Poland has just seen its new President ushered into office. It may choose to see how the government handles relief aid as a general indicator of its competence. The electorate may respond accordingly in the coming elections that are due this autumn and next year.

The presidential elections were anticipated because, of course, the country had tragically lost its President and many of its top civilian and military officials in a plane crash in April.

In the following campaign, the pro-EU, market friendly conservative, Bronislaw Komorowski, beat Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a Euro-sceptic social conservative and the twin brother of the deceased President.

That was the expected final result but the outcome was politically more interesting. First, in third place, the former Communist candidate performed respectably, suggesting that the now renamed Social Democrats might soon become an important electoral force.

Second, Mr Kaczynski performed much better than expected and gained a great deal in his personal popularity ratings. Which means that in the general elections next year, his Euro-sceptic party could make a comeback.

If it does, it would coincide with Poland’s EU presidency in 2011. During this campaign, Mr Kaczynski moderated some of his divisive rhetoric and was repaid by voters endorsing him. However, it would still be intriguing to see how a fundamentally nationalist, Euro-sceptic party would handle an EU presidency during a delicate period.

Of course, he might not win, after all. Mr Komarowski’s presidential win was welcomed by some observers because it was supposed to usher in a period of stability.

Up until Mr Komarowski’s win, Poland had a President from one party and a government from another. The late President, Lech Kaczynski, used his right to veto legislation many times, frustrating Mr Komarowski’s governing party.

Now, presumably, the vetoes will stop, or at least will be greatly reduced in number. However, that means that the governing party must actually get down to instituting major necessary reforms and it cannot use presidential vetoes as an excuse to cover up inaction.

In a country where, since the fall of Communism, no governing party has ever won re-election, instituting reforms will be a very delicate matter, from an electoral perspective.

Therefore, apart from the human interest in seeing the current tragedy of the flash floods resolved as quickly as possible, many European politicians will be watching events over the next several weeks with a political eye, as well.

A pro-EU Polish government would certainly ease relations and communications within the Union. A Euro-sceptic one would create tensions, perhaps especially with Germany, that may be unnecessary at this key moment for European economies.

Current Polish politics may also have a special interest for Malta. For a while, Mr Kaczynski’s party was drawn into a politics of polarisation, speaking tough words about identity and against the faintest liberal sentiments.

It seemed to work for a while in that Catholic country. But the relationship with the electorate soon soured. In the recent campaign, Mr Kaczynski had to make a run for the political centre.

I suspect there is a lesson there for Malta.

Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.