Berlusconi faces rebellion

Although the Italian government won a vote of no confidence against a junior justice minister last Wednesday, the vote showed that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi had lost his absolute parliamentary majority.

This has prompted many analysts to believe Italy will be faced with an early election. Even if Italy does not go to the polls soon, the Prime Minister is surely in for a difficult time and the country could now enter a period of instability.

Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition only survived the no confidence vote because 33 party rebels who have formed the Future and Freedom for Italy party under the leadership of Gianfranco Fini, decided to join other small parties in abstaining. The no confidence motion, spearheaded by the opposition Democratic Party, was defeated by 229 votes to 299, with 75 abstentions.

Berlusconi’s People of Freedom party, which is still backed by the Northern League in Parliament, needs at least 316 votes in the 630-seat lower house of Parliament in order to pass legislation.

Fini, who is Speaker of Parliament, a powerful political post, said he will continue to vote with the government as long as it sticks to its electoral platform. But from now on, every bit of legislation put forward in Parliament will be a gamble, and that is no way to run a government.

Berlusconi and Fini, who last year co-founded the People of Freedom party – a merger of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Fini’s National Alliance – have been publicly feuding for months.

Fini has taken a strong stand against corruption and made it clear that all politicians under investigation by the courts should resign. He also criticised Berlusconi for making too many concessions to the Northern League and for his attempt to push through the so-called ‘gag law’, which restricts the use of wiretaps by the police and media, which Fini managed to water down. Fini also accused Berlusconi of promoting legislation that protects him from corruption charges.

Last week Berlusconi said the price of “obvious divisions” within the party were too high and demanded Fini’s resignation as Speaker, saying the latter’s views were “abso­lutely incompatible” with those of Berlusconi’s party. Fini refused, saying the Speaker’s job was “not at the beck and call of the Prime Minister” and subsequently led his 33 rebel MPs to form a breakaway party, shortly after he was expelled from the ruling party.

Fini and Berlusconi have been close allies ever since the billionaire media tycoon entered politics in 1994, and their parting of ways is bound to have an effect on Italian centre-right politics. Fini has been uncomfortable with Berlusconi’s personality-driven leadership style as well as the corruption allegations against a number of ministers, and has been slowly distancing himself from the Prime Minister.

Speaking shortly after forming his new party, Fini criticised Berlusconi for “not exactly having a liberal concept of democracy” and for governing with the “business logic of a chief executive which has nothing to do with our democratic institutions”.

Fini, in fact, has proved to be much more of a moderate conservative than either Berlusconi or Umberto Bossi of the Northern League. Despite the fact that Fini’s former party, the National Alliance, had its roots in the Italian post-war neo-fascist movement, Fini has over the years evolved into a mainstream Conservative with clear centrist – even liberal – views on a whole wide range of issues, such as immigration and various aspects of social policy.

Many observers believe Fini is now waiting in the wings to take over leadership of Italy’s centre-right when Berlusconi exits the political scene. Of course, many MPs from the People of Freedom might resent the fact that Fini split off from the party and was so openly critical of Berlusconi, and could well refuse to accept him back, let alone back him as their leader. But stranger things have happened in politics. There is no obvious heir for the leadership of People of Freedom, and Fini has the stature, respectability, charisma and high-profile to assume such a role.

Fini might also court the centrist UDC, led by Pier Ferdinando Casini, which has positioned itself between People of Freedom and the centre-left Democratic Party, and is not part of the ruling coalition. Although the UDC is a small party and received only 5.6 per cent of the popular vote in the 2008 election, it could re-align itself with the main centre-right parties when Berlusconi steps down as his party’s leader.

Berlusconi is in for a difficult period, and this split by Fini and a group of rebel MPs could mark the beginning of the end for his political career. He has survived sex scandals, allegations of corruption against his ministers, claims of conflicts of interests and two criminal trials. Can he survive this latest crisis?

Should he feel his ability to govern is under threat, he could call an early election to give Fini little time to re-organise his new party and to take advantage of the Democratic Party’s state of disarray.

He could well surprise us all. After all, he has proved to be the ‘comeback kid’ on a number of occasions in the past.