Contrary to what some people think, the outcome of the next general election is still very uncertain. The rather average performance of the Nationalist government and its failure to solve many of the country's problems has led to the mistaken perception by many that its electoral fate is sealed. This perception has been reinforced by allegations of corruption and of Machiavellian dealings, which have seriously dented the Nationalist Party's democratic credentials.

In reality, however, the electoral fate of the major political parties still lies very much in the balance. What some Labourites do not seem to realise is that there is a world of difference between the traditional "Maltese gemgem" and actual voting at the next general election. The Maltese grumble about almost everything but they are very conservative in the way they cast their vote. Let's examine some of the mistaken assumptions about what will influence the people's voting preferences at the next general election.

First assumption: Many people will vote Labour in protest against the exorbitant energy tariffs. Wrong assumption. When the general election approaches, there is a great probability that many grumblers will rationalise the PN government's actions. The very high energy tariffs were an economic necessity, they will argue. What about the poor service provided, like frequent power cuts? Well, there are power cuts even in countries more advanced than ours, they will continue to argue.

Second assumption: Many people will vote Labour because they are fed up with the clientelism practised by the PN government and by the persistent allegations of corruption, like the controversy surrounding the Delimara power station extension. Wrong. While it is true that such an issue will influence the voting outcome, it seems that a great number of Maltese voters take it for granted that, when in power, it is natural for politicians to make hay while the sun shines. Many would even be greatly disappointed were clientelism to be eradicated from political life. What? Have the political party you support elected and then get nothing in return for your support? What kind of nonsense is this? That is how, unfortunately, a substantial number of voters argue.

Third assumption: The Lawrence Gonzi Administration has failed to solve several of the country's problems, therefore it does not deserve to be re-elected. Wrong. Several traditional PN voters will argue that no government on earth is impeccable in its performance. Between choosing a PN government with all its defects or an alternative Labour government, they would choose the former because they have always voted Nationalist and have no faith in Labour.

Fourth assumption: The PN cannot win another general election by again resorting to the dubious tactics of 2008 when it used its power of incumbency to perfection, making a mockery of democracy in the process but still just remaining within the bounds of legality. Wrong. As long as it does not break the law, the PN will stop at nothing to win once again. It is to be taken for granted that the PN will use every stratagem imaginable to win votes. Being already in government will give it a tremendous advantage over the Labour Party and the latter will be powerless to prevent abuse of the PN's power of incumbency.

So does all this mean that Labour has no chance to win the next general election? No, of course not! It does, however, mean that Labour has big challenges facing it.

The PL has to draw up sound and workable policies for the country's future and, very importantly, make sure that it explains them in an effective manner to the public. Furthermore, it has to continue reaching out to all sections of Maltese society. Today, the PL represents the interests of all Maltese citizens - workers, employers, industrialists, entrepreneurs, pensioners, youths, males and females, minority groups, etc.

I believe that Labour's trump card lies in the quality of its leader, Joseph Muscat.

Dr Muscat has managed to surprise everyone with the maturity and quality of his political leadership. His leadership to date has been efficient, analytic, imaginative and creative. Many people are seeing in him the makings of a great Prime Minister.

To be fair, Lawrence Gonzi has done his utmost to solve the country's problems but his results have been rather poor. Given Dr Muscat's track record of success both as a member of the European Parliament and as Leader of the Opposition, many floating voters are willing to give him their vote of confidence at the next general election.

To conclude, to be electable, Labour has to provide coherent and realistic policies to solve the country's problems. It has to clearly explain to all how it will be different and better than the PN if elected to government.

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