Britain gets a hung Parliament, party leaders jockey for power

As expected, Britain's election produced a hung Parliament despite a considerable swing from Labour towards the Conservatives, who ended up with most votes and the largest number of seats in Parliament but who are short of an overall majority.

Labour saw its share of the popular vote decline from 35 per cent in 2005 to 29 per cent, a very poor result indeed which is only two points more than its historic low result of 27 per cent in 1983.

The Conservatives increased their share of the vote from 32 per cent five years ago to 36 per cent, a significant improvement, but which is not enough to produce a majority in the House of Commons. Although the Liberal Democrats had surged in the opinion polls, their result was a disappointing one as the party only managed to increase its share of the popular vote by one per cent to 23 per cent.

For a party to win a parliamentary majority, it needs half the seats in Parliament plus one: 326 seats. As I write this, it looks like the Conservatives will have 305 seats, Labour 255, the Liberal Democrats 61, and the rest will be held by the smaller parties.

Once again, this outcome shows just how disproportionate Britain's electoral system is. The 'first past the post' system very much favours the two main parties, in particular Labour, at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. It is also important to note that in 2005 Labour got a 66 seat majority with 35 per cent of the vote, which is less than what the Conservatives got in this election.

This result means that Prime Minister Gordon Brown does not need to resign and can try to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, but such a coalition would depend on the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists for a parliamentary majority, and possibly also Northern Ireland's small Social Democrat and Labour Party.

Soon after winning his constituency election in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Brown hinted he would like to stay on in Downing Street and said it was his duty to play a part in Britain "having a strong, stable and principled government".

Welsh Secretary Peter Hain echoed Mr Brown's comments by officially calling for a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition government, including an "arrangement" with the Scottish and Welsh parties. He said such a partnership government could "drive through the fundamental reforms".

However, while it is true that Labour and the Liberal Democrats have more in common with each other than with the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said the Tories had gained "first right" to attempt to form a government in the "national interest" since they are now the largest party.

Brown told the media he "respects" the right of the Liberal Democrats to talk to the Conservatives about forming a government. He also made it clear that if these talks failed, he would open negotiations with the Liberal Democrats to try and reach a common programme with an emphasis on economic recovery and electoral reform.

Conservative leader David Cameron, on the other hand, said Brown has lost the mandate to govern and that voters have called for change, and that "change is going to require new leadership".

However, the Tories and their Ulster Unionist allies together do not enjoy a parliamentary majority, and the Conservatives would need the support of the Liberal Democrats to govern. Cameron has in fact invited the Liberal Democrats to work with him in supporting a minority Conservative government or even a "stronger, more collaborative" option, saying there was common ground between the two parties. However, he did not use the word 'coalition'.

A Labour-Liberal Democrat deal will also not be easy to achieve. Clegg knows that Brown is not popular and that a large swing against Labour has taken place. This was also acknowledged by Business Secretary Peter Mandelson, who conceded that the country had voted for change and accepted that replacing Brown was one of a number of options.

Clegg's conditions for joining a Labour-led government could well include electoral reform which, if accepted, would change the face of British politics forever, as well as Brown's resignation and his replacement by another Labour leader.

If Labour fails to put together a workable majority, with or without Brown as Prime Minister, the most likely scenario will be the formation of a Conservative minority government led by Cameron, and not a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

Such a government is unlikely to last very long and it could collapse the moment the opposition calls for a vote of no confidence in Parliament. This is hardly the stable government Britain needs during these difficult economic times, but we'll have to wait and see how things develop.

In other interesting developments, Caroline Lucas became Britain's first Green Party MP, Northern Ireland's First Minister and Democratic Unionist Party leader Peter Robinson lost his seat, Education Secretary Ed Balls hung on to his seat by just 100 votes, two former Labour Home Secretaries, Charles Clarke and Jacqui Smith, lost their seat, and the Conservatives made important gains in Wales but ended up with only one seat in Scotland.