British election result hangover

As was being predicted, Britain woke up yesterday morning to a hung Parliament. This was an election that saw Labour losing heavily, the Conservatives not winning enough to have an overall majority and, to everyone's surprise, the Lib Dems losing a number of seats despite increasing slightly their share of national votes. At the time of writing, it is still unclear who will form Britain's next government.

The election in Britain saw a surge in voters' turnout (65 per cent) across the country. This could have been higher had the authorities been better prepared to cope with the numbers of voters who turned up late in the evening. People who had been queuing for a considerable period of time to cast a vote were turned away at 10 p.m. In one polling station in Liverpool, the authorities had actually run out of ballot papers.

Back to the numbers, the three parties could look at the result from two perspectives. From a positive perspective, the Conservatives made historic gains and won almost 100 seats from Labour but still failing to win an overall majority. Labour remained the second largest party and only lost six per cent of the votes despite persistent suggestions from all corners that they will be overtaken by the Lib Dems. On the other hand, the Lib Dems emerged as the kingmakers despite losing a number of seats.

The disappointing result of the Lib Dems was the biggest surprise of the night. The buoyant mood in the Lib Dems' camp took a massive blow when at 10 p.m. sharp the exit polls suggested they will actually lose seats. The Clegg-mania campaign, boosted by the televised debates, seems to have been deflated at the closing hours of the campaign when voters opted to vote tactically and, although their share of the national poll stands at 23 per cent (up one) they will only occupy 57 seats in the House of Commons. But, still, they are the key holders at No. 10 because both parties need their support to form a government.

There are two questions here. Who will be forming the next government? And what price are the two big parties willing to pay to the Lib Dems to secure a Parliamentary majority?

As for the first question, Nick Clegg said in a statement that he will speak to David Cameron first. If talks fail, it is reasonable to assume that he will then hold talks with Gordon Brown. The problem that Labour and the Lib Dems have is that their combined seats would still not make up an overall majority and they would require the support of a smaller party to secure an overall majority.

The second issue is more complicated. Apart from Cabinet posts, the Lib Dems will be seeking a reform in the electoral system, something which the Tories are resisting. A proportional representation system as the Lib Dems want will effectively change completely the face of British politics. Apart from the changes at constituency level, such a change in the system will have an impact on the composition of the House of Commons and the formation of governments, which, in most cases, will require a coalition. As one British political analyst said, a change to a proportional representation system would put the Tories out of power for a generation. It is, therefore, unlikely that Mr Cameron will agree to this sort of arrangement with Mr Clegg.

On the other hand, Mr Brown seems to have converted to electoral reform and in a statement made yesterday afternoon he said that he is willing to reform the electoral system should he remain in power. To do so, Mr Brown will require the support not only of the Lib Dems but also of other parties. They too will negotiate a deal which suits their interests.

It is very unlikely that an agreement will be reached by the end of the weekend. Negotiations among parties are underway. The situation is very fluid. In the meantime, Mr Brown remains in office.