Russian 2012 intrigue intensifies with Medvedev hint

The intrigue surrounding the political plans of Russia's rulers has intensified after President Dmitry Medvedev unexpectedly dropped his strongest hint yet he is eager to run for a second mandate in 2012.

Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin -- his Kremlin predecessor and seen by most as the true number one -- have so far offered only the most elusive clues as to how Russia's political choreography will play out.

With Medvedev just days away from marking his two years in power on May 7, he has never banished speculation that his mentor and fellow Saint Petersburg native Putin will merely brush him aside and stand again in the 2012 polls.

But Medvedev said in a weekend interview with a Norwegian newspaper he could not "rule anything out, including my participation in these elections", if his candidacy was necessary for the country.

As leading Russian newspaper Vedomosti noted, "it is the first time that Medvedev talks about his presidential plans without referring to an agreement with Putin."

Putin, whose eight year presidency saw him move from being an almost unknown intelligence agent to Russia's strongman post-Soviet ruler, had said in September he and Medvedev would agree before making their decision.

Putin had been unable to stand for a third term in 2008 under a constitutional rule that precludes three successive terms, but would be allowed to stand for a third term in 2012 after his four year pause.

"The question is going to be discussed between the two of them but it is Putin who will take the decision. Two years on, he remains the leader of the tandem," said analyst Maria Lipman of the Carnegie Centre in Moscow.

Analysts have struggled to discern major political differences between Putin and Medvedev, whose comments are rarely contradictory and whose appearances seem to have been carefully harmonized by officials.

But Medvedev recently has placed a greater emphasis on modernization of the economy and reform of the security services, although critics accuse him of doing nothing to improve Russia's democratic shortcomings.

A new report published Monday described the Russian elite's process of deciding on the preferred presidential candidate as the Russian version of US primaries.

The report, published by the Agency for Political and Economic Communication, said the chance of Putin disappearing from the political scene was "impossible in the visible future" but boldly set out three scenarios for 2012.

-- Status quo, with the ruling "tandem" staying in their posts.

"The main argument for this is the large degree of inertia in the political process. This means that of all the options the least conflictual one is chosen."

-- Putin returns to the Kremlin.

This scenario "would be linked to the fact that Putin has the greatest amount of trust amongst the population and Medvedev's popularity is to a greater or lesser extent a reflection of Putin's," it said.

But the main argument against Putin becoming president again "is the lack of answer to the fundamental question 'Why?' which would be posed by the population and part of the elite," said the report by political analysts Dmitry Orlov, Dmitry Badovsky and Mikhail Vinogradov.

-- Mr X, a third leader emerges.

This could see only one out of Putin and Medvedev staying on in their posts as a new man takes over one of the top jobs. Then Medvedev could head a newly empowered constitutional court or Putin a revamped parliament, the report said.

Vedomosti on Monday quoted a source close to the presidential administration as saying a process of "demarcation" was in progress amongst the elite with some officials inclining towards Putin and others towards Medvedev.

Whoever becomes president in 2012, they will benefit from an amendment proposed by Medvedev to extend the presidential mandate to six from four years.