Calls to double food production 'based on lie'

Assumptions that the world will need to double food production by 2050 were questioned by organic farming supporters.

The frequently-quoted statistics that food production will have to increase by 50 per cent by 2030 and double by mid-century were based on a "big fat lie", the Soil Association claimed.

The statistics are driving calls for vast increases in agricultural production to feed the world's booming population, and being used to promote intensive agriculture and genetically modified foods, the organic food body said.

A report by the Soil Association said the original source of the widely-used figures was unclear.

The required increase could be significantly less, with the UK's Department for International Development (DfID) working on the basis that food production would have to rise by 70 per cent rather than 100 per cent by mid-century.

The key UN Food and Agriculture Organisation report on the issue delivers a "nuanced" message, in which large increases in production are predicted in the developing world where most population rises will occur, the Soil Association report said.

It warned the predicted increase in meat and dairy production to meet demand would not end hunger, but would lead to health problems such as obesity among people in developing countries and increase greenhouse gases from livestock.

Peter Melchett, the organisation's policy director, said: "The 'big fat lie' of needing to double global food production by 2050 has dominated policy and media discussions of food and farming, making it increasingly difficult for advocates of sustainable farming methods, such as organic, to convince people we can actually feed the world without more damage to the environment and animal welfare.