A long way to go for the PM

It wouldn't be surprising if Lawrence Gonzi at times regretted he had won the 2008 general election. To an extent it was the best of times - he had won the right to govern on his own steam, not through inheritance, as was the case when he took over Eddie Fenech Adami's prime ministerial mantle. In various other regards it became the worst of times.

The global recession burst out shortly after the GonziPN victory, and the internal recession within the PN almost as soon as the Cabinet was sworn in. Totting up the plusses and the minuses of his first two years Gonzi can feel that the way he confronted the challenges of the recession is a plus. He took early action based on a micro focus, rather than a broad sweep. Manufacturers threatened to be overwhelmed by the decline in foreign demand for their output were supported to bridge the unfolding gap.

The government offered meaningful encouragement to invest for better times. Discharges were kept to a minimum and a number of companies laid down plans for new capital investment, set to reap eventual reward with the help of retrained workers. Dr Gonzi and Tonio Fenech erred in attributing the ballooning budget deficit to the cost of this specific assistance - but a cost there was.

More important, there was a positive result. Not as much could be said for the tourist industry. After doing very well in 2008, it stalled heavily in 2009. The Finance Minister allocated additional resources to cushion the fall. They were not nearly enough. Came 2010 and the government offered an alternative - more funds in direct assistance, or expenditure to help a low-cost airline locate a plane here and open new routes to attract an additional 100,000 tourists, other things remaining equal.

The second alternative made more sense. It now remains to be seen whether its implementation will work. The construction industry fared much worse. With the property market at a near standstill in terms of sales, builders slowed down on finishing work in hand. That was part of the bursting of Malta's very own property bubble, though the effect was not as severe as in, say, Spain or Ireland.

Construction contraction is likely to last, despite the Mepa reform. Dr Gonzi hopes to give it a boost with the Valletta entrance project. But, will that really take off? Touted to become his enduring legacy, it has become the PM's major headache. Popular opinion would like Malta to be associated with Renzo Piano - but not really in the way the Valletta entrance, the re-use of the old Royal Opera site and especially the new Parliament building have been proposed.

All this Dr Gonzi could digest with relative political ease. What burdened him most in his first two years was the rebelliousness of a number of his backbenchers. The PN does not have a Mintoff grandpa, but a number of unruly fellows wrought their own havoc. He replied with calling them in for tea and sympathy, plus a measure he may yet live to regret. Effectively to shut up his MPs he will be making a number of them Parliamentary Private Secretaries. The role exists in much bigger parliaments, like the House of Commons; it was never envisaged in Malta.

It is not necessary. For our size, the governing machine is already bloated, though, to his credit Prime Minister Gonzi has reduced the number of ministers. It will swell further. The measure is intended purely to appease some MPs. That will not happen by shutting up their public voice. They will want more. Meanwhile, ministers will grow to want less of them.

Meanwhile Dr Gonzi will still have to deal with his biggest problem - the extent to which public opinion has swung against him. That shift is driven largely by the utility tariffs. People are howling in pain without having really been hit with water electricity bills at the new rates from January on. It will get worse. Dr Gonzi has not persuaded domestic and commercial users that this is the best he could do.

With three years to go, the PM, his team and fellow travellers will try to recover through constant attacks on the Leader of the Opposition and his side, thereby to alienate attention from problems that will continue to arise. That is how the game of politics is played. The Prime Minister, despite temptations to regret holding the bitter chalice of his first two years in office, will hope that he can once more turn things around in his remaining time at the helm. There does remain a long way to go...