Obama's State of the Union

Just over a year ago Barack Obama was inaugurated as US President after winning the election on a massive wave of goodwill when he offered hope and change to a nation that had grown weary after eight years of the Bush presidency. The United States was facing its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, it was fighting two unpopular wars and its esteem around the globe was at an all-time low.

Despite taking office with record high ratings and having had a reasonable record in office so far, Obama's popularity has fallen sharply, he is being deserted by independent voters and he suffered a humiliating defeat in the Massachusetts Senate vote. What has gone wrong?

First of all, I think it is important to acknowledge what Obama has accomplished so far. His stimulus package avoided a depression, saved jobs and stabilised the economy, and that is a very important achievement for which he deserves credit.

The President is also very close to reforming the country's healthcare system - even though he has now lost his filibuster-proof majority in the Senate - and he vastly improved America's image throughout the world, he is disengaging from Iraq and is determined to win the war in Afghanistan through a balanced political and military strategy.

The loss of the Massachusetts Senate vote, however, was indeed a big blow for Obama, especially since the seat was in Democratic Party hands since 1953 and was held by Edward Kennedy - the party's liberal icon and 'Lion of the Senate' - since 1963.

There is no doubt that Obama took victory for granted and the Democratic Party fielded a poor candidate in this election. Furthermore, 90 per cent of the people of Massachusetts are covered by private health insurance - the only state in the union which has introduced mandatory health care coverage - and so many voters were fearful of having to pay twice for their healthcare under Obama's plans.

However, this Senate defeat cannot just be attributed to Massachusetts' particular circumstances or to a poor election campaign. The first signs of voter disillusionment emerged last November after the Republicans won two elections for the post of governor in Virginia and New Jersey, even though these two states had voted for Obama in the presidential election a year earlier.

Also, for the Democrats to lose in Massachusetts - which Obama had won with 62 per cent of the popular vote in 2008 - and which has no Republican congressmen - means public opinion has shifted radically against Obama.

Even though the US economy is technically no longer in recession, voters do not feel that way and unemployment is still stuck at 10 per cent. The proportion of long-term unemployed is at its highest since 1948, so it is not surprising that we are witnessing a backlash by the electorate against Obama.

Furthermore, Obama has made a number of mistakes in his first year in office. He allowed the Democratic Party in Congress too much leeway in determining the legislative agenda instead of taking the lead himself. Many congressional Democrats tend to be on the left of the political spectrum, and are not particularly popular among the electorate. Voters want Obama to govern from the centre and to co-operate with the opposition - which is what he promised in his campaign.

The President also made the mistake of appearing to be unconcerned about public spending and debt, and taken within this context it is perhaps understandable that many voters are weary about the cost of Obama's expensive healthcare plan.

Even though the Republicans have not been particularly co-operative with the President, Obama needs to show voters that he is reaching out to them. In any case, now that the Democrats no longer have 60 seats in the Senate, the President needs the support of the opposition if he wants to pass major legislation in Congress. This is not an impossible task, and President Bill Clinton reached out to the Republicans after their 1994 congressional victory, stole many of their policies and was comfortably re-elected in 1996.

During his State of the Union address to Congress on Wednesday the President made a good start at capturing the popular mood and understanding people's anger and frustrations. He said that creating jobs must be the administration's top priority and that for many people his campaign pledge of change had not come quickly enough. "I want a jobs bill on my desk without delay," he said.

Obama also promised a three-year spending freeze from 2011 to tackle the budget deficit and took his share of blame for not properly explaining his healthcare proposals.

Obama offered the Republicans an olive branch by proposing new tax cuts for small businesses and a pledge to look again at offshore drilling and a new generation of nuclear power plants.

He also promised monthly meetings with congressional leaders from both parties and called for a new co-operation and a spirit of "common sense".

"What frustrates the American people is a Washington where every day is Election Day," Obama told Congress.

With major congressional elections in 10 months' time, it is hard to see how this attitude can change.