Russia gains as Ukraine's Orange dream fades away

Whoever becomes Ukraine's next President, Russia has strengthened its influence and Orange Revolution dreams of creating a new, Western-oriented model for post-Soviet states have suffered a rude awakening.

The 2004 Revolution was the worst defeat of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin's decade in power after he congratulated the victorious pro-Kremlin candidate before an uprising and court order annulled the rigged vote.

Now, in a stunning turnaround, Viktor Yanukovich, the same Moscow-leaning candidate accused of rigging the elections in 2004, won the first round of presidential elections on Sunday and will be favourite in the run-off.

Mr Yanukovich's second round opponent, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, may be an Orange veteran but she has struck a pragmatic tone on Kremlin ties and above all built up a strong relationship with the ever-important Mr Putin.

Meanwhile the political career of the Orange Revolution's defeated hero, President Viktor Yushchenko, who dreamed of turning Ukraine away from Russia towards EU and Nato membership, appears to have sustained a terminal blow. "There are not too many differences between Yanukovich and Tymoshenko" on foreign policy, said Nico Lange, director of the Ukraine programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kiev.

"Russia can live with both of them very well."

While both Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovich have set joining the EU as a policy goal, neither shares Mr Yushchenko's enthusiasm for bringing Ukraine into Nato, a move some analysts warned risked causing a military conflict with Russia.

Ksenia Lyapina, an MP close to Mr Yushchenko, grimly acknowledged: "Moscow has won. They can be congratulated."