Emerging economies are raising global oil demand slightly faster than expected but easy-money policies and unreliable Chinese data may be giving a false picture, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly review of the oil market.
And oil consumption was "sluggish" in the huge US market where unpredictable and rapidly changing data had a big effect on the global estimates from month to month.
The global crisis has probably removed some demand permanently and energy-saving measures will also bear on consumption in years ahead, the IEA said.
"Growth (of oil demand) continues to be driven by non-OECD countries, notably in Asia and the Middle East," the IEA said.
"Nonetheless, OECD prospects have improved to some extent, particularly in the Pacific."
But the IEA, the energy arm of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, also warned: A key risk to the forecast pertains to the US outlook.
"Demand remains stubbornly sluggish, with a continued contraction in distillate deliveries and very modest growth in gasoline (petrol) demand."
The agency said it was working on an assumption that during the global crisis "a degree of structural demand destruction has occurred, notably in the OECD, which may constrain overall levels of demand in future".
In addition "ongoing declines in oil intensity, tighter fuel economy standards, industry restructuring and gas-for-oil substitution, are assumed".
The IEA also gave a preliminary review of its mid-term outlook published in June.
It said it now saw a "marginally tighter" oil market for 2010 and a slighter higher call on Opec oil in the medium term.
Overall, it now expected global demand from 2009 to 1024 to be 1.9 mbd higher than estimated in June, when it had outlined two situations; one for relatively high growth of the global economy and the other for more modest growth.
On a higher outlook of 4.5 per cent economic growth, the IEA said oil demand would grow by 1.2 mbd or 1.4 per cent from 2009 onwards to 91 mbd by 2014. The increase would come from non-OECD countries which would account for 51 per cent of global demand in 2014.
On a lower outlook of three per cent growth from 2011, oil demand would increase by less than 500,000 barrels per day or by 0.5 per cent per year. This would take global demand "to just 87 mbd in 2014, broadly returning to 2007 global demand levels".
The difference between these two outlooks of 4.0 mbd "makes a huge difference for medium-term oil market balances".
In its regular monthly review, the agency said it was holding its estimate for demand in the advanced economies of the OECD this year broadly unchanged, although it had "slightly adjusted" up by 70,000 barrels per day for next year "on the back of an improved outlook for the Pacific, especially in (South) Korea".
Overall, this meant that in OECD countries this year oil demand would fall in 2009 from the 2008 level by two million barrels per day or by 4.3 per cent to 45.5 million barrels per day.
And the overall demand figure for 2010 would "remain flat" because demand in the first quarter was expected to fall on a 12-month comparison.
That decline would then be "offset by a return to modest growth in the following quarters".
But for countries outside the advanced OECD region, the IEA raised its forecast for oil demand by about 20,000 barrels per day for this year and by 60,000 barrels per day for next year. This resulted from "higher-than-expected preliminary data from China and India, whose economies continue to benefit from government stimuli".
But this estimate was subject to "considerable uncertainty" regarding data quality, with the "most glaring" example being a "seeming mismatch between China's subdued gasoline demand and surging car sales".
The IEA said that perhaps "Chinese drivers are highly circumspect" about using their cars and consuming fuel, or maybe "the vehicle fleet has suddenly become extremely efficient", or rather "gasoline demand is simply being under reported".
In any case, the agency stressed, the overall recovery of oil demand this year and expected next year would be "somewhat 'anomalous', driven by extremely loose macroeconomic policies in big emerging economies, most notably China".
The IEA said that it now expected global demand for oil this year to be 84.9 million barrels per day, marking a fall of 1.4 mbd or 1.6 per cent from demand last year.
Next year, demand would total 86.3 mbd, an increase from this year's level of 1.5 mbd or 1.7 per cent.
Global oil inventories fell by 36 mb in October to 2,735 mb, or 2.5 per cent above the equivalent figure last year.
Global supplies rose in November by 200,000 bd. Production by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 135,000 bd to 29.1 mbd, the highest level for a year.
Supplies from outside Opec in 2009 were now expected to total 51.3 mbd, an upward revision of 125,000 bd because of greater Russian ouput. A relatively quiet hurricane seasons in the oil-producing Mexican gulf region had also helped.