Hassan Abbas
Pakistan's next fight
The terrorist sanctuary in the South Waziristan region of Pakistan's tribal frontier with Afghanistan is coming apart. It took a while for the Pakistani Army to move against the region's rising violence and chaos, but its campaign in South Waziristan is making progress.
The campaign's immediate impact consists in Pakistan's determination to establish its authority in the area. But the window for the military to fill the power vacuum will be open only briefly. The terrorists have shown before that they can take a punch, strike back and even rebuild their networks.
Indeed, even as the Pakistani Army launched operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Salvation) in October, a dozen devastating terrorist attacks in Pakistan's major cities demonstrated the reach of the South Waziristan militants. In a few instances, senior army and intelligence officers were targeted outside their homes in Islamabad, despite extensive security measures in and around the capital.
The October 11 attack on army headquarters in Rawalpindi was the most daring of all - and sent shudders across the military command, because the terrorists knew the layout of the military and security buildings. But this inside knowledge also worked against the militants, because it demonstrated what was at stake for the country at large. No large street protests against the military operation in South Waziristan have been reported from anywhere in Pakistan.
But success in South Waziristan is only the starting point for dealing with the problem. Militant hubs are scattered throughout the sparsely-populated tribal areas, including the North Waziristan, Orakzai and Mohmand regions. Moreover, violent militancy has now spread into Pakistan proper. Southern Punjab is seeing a rapid growth in the number of religious fanatics, and rooting out the problem there is much more challenging than acting in the Pashtun tribal areas.
Many militants in Punjab worked closely with the Pakistani intelligence services for years, and their infrastructure is dispersed and hidden in various towns and villages. The Army, which recruits heavily in the Punjab, will not use force there in the way it is doing in the tribal areas. Only a concerted law-enforcement effort, with the full support of the intelligence services, can succeed in the Pakistani heartland.
The deep security crisis in Pakistan is mirrored across the border in Afghanistan, which offers a model of what not to do. The Afghan Taliban, removed from power and routed from the country by the end of 2001, needed only a few years to revive itself, owing to the failure of the Afghan government and its international backers to rebuild and stabilise the country.
A critical factor in the Taliban's revival was the haven that it found in the distant reaches of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, and the support that it continued to receive from elements within Pakistan. This time, as the Afghan Taliban are expelled from Pakistan, Nato and Afghan forces must be ready to take them on.
Observing the fighting in Pakistan, the United States, Afghanistan and India expect the Pakistani army to take on both the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani militants. But thousands of fighters are thought to be dispersed in the Pashtun tribal areas of Pakistan, with many of them focused on operations in Afghanistan. The cross-border movement of radicals suggests the importance of international cooperation.
Moreover, alliances among radical groups are constantly shifting, a reflection of tribal traditions and opportunism. Outsiders watching these shifts, and the Pakistani government's handling of them, have been unable to discern a consistent pattern that would explain Pakistani policy. But here, regional politics must be taken into account, especially the continuing rivalry between India and Pakistan.
At every stage of the lengthy conflict that has brought the US into the region, Pakistan has sought to limit Indian influence in Afghanistan. Indeed, India's growing influence and investment in Afghanistan is disturbing to Pakistan's national security apparatus. Ultimately, the dynamics of Afghan politics will determine Afghanistan's fate. But a collaborative India-Pakistan effort to stabilise the country could work wonders.
For both Pakistan and India, Afghanistan risks turning into a new disputed territory, like Kashmir, where conflict has damaged both countries for more than 60 years. In Afghanistan today, they have an opportunity to reject that precedent and act on their mutual interest in stability.
Pakistan must be able to focus internally on its future. Financially insolvent and politically paralysed, Pakistan needs international help to bring development to its liberated tribal areas and hope to the young people - 65 per cent of the population - who live there. For India, stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan would ease its rise to global economic power. Both countries should take advantage of the opportunity for cooperation provided by the Pakistani Army's campaign against Waziristan's militants.
Mr Abbas is a senior adviser to Harvard's Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Centre.
© Project Syndicate, 2009, www.project-syndicate.org.
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Bill Khan
Dec 5th 2009, 15:42
@E.Muscat, the US has been trying to control Afghanistan and Pakistan for the last 60 years but without success. It has supported dictators in both countries and many say the US was behind the judicial murder of an eleted prime mininster (Z. A. Bhutto).
The US continues t ry to have a control in the region, but as i said earlier here are to many players already in the regon wth their own agenda and self interests including russia and china and they too are playing trickis of their own quietly. The british tried to control the region in the last cetry followed by the Soviets. If you visit the area you will know it is not a simple situaton. As you say nuclear bombing the place may be the only solution for the US to get a foothold in that part f the world. but then we are talking of a scenario of an all out nulear conflict bewteen nations in which ase Erope would be placed too close to the egion compared to the US. Lets hope for peace evey where.
E.Muscat
Dec 5th 2009, 08:27
I never said destroy any human beings:give them adequate warning and then do it!The US only needs to control Pakistan and Afghanistan: the rest is their problem! As Mr.Ellul said it all started with the PLO and Arafat:Israel will never be defeated again,the worst scenario is mutual annihilation of Israel and most of the arab states.
Joseph Ellul - Sydney
Dec 5th 2009, 01:14
@ Hassan Abbas
Over 20 years ago Dr. George Habash, leader of PFLP said : Our struggle has barely begun. The worst is yet to come. It is right for the West to be warned now that there will be no peace. The prospect of triggering a third world war doesn't bother us.The world has been using us and has forgotten us. It is time they realised that we exist. Whatever the price, we will continue the struggle. Without our consent, the other Arabs can do nothing. And we will never agree to a peaceful settlement. We are the joker in the pack .
In my opinion Pakistan is just another victim of the PLO. We are all victims of the PLO. After more than 20 years the PLO have managed to multiply and separate into a thousand separate bodies that have infiltrated all walks of life in all countries.
A cancer in a living body also has the same message to the body : It will never agree to a peaceful settlement. 7/11 was an example of what the future holds. This is the time for the fiery sword ot the apocalypse
Alastair Farrugia
Dec 4th 2009, 17:47
E. Muscat, I am disappointed at how easily you talk about creating massive destruction in a far away country. (You even hope that this would solve more problems that it would create, but we've all seen how the US reacted to the murder of 3,000 of its civilians; don't expect that anyone can inflict far more casualties in Afghanistan without suffering very serious retaliation. But that's another argument.)
There is certainly a lot of tyranny, dictatorship and injustice in the Third World. But don't forget that a lot of it is caused by Western governments. I'm not referring only to colonialism from centuries past, but also to unjust trade agreements (mistakenly called "free trade") imposed by the EU and US, and Western backing of the very tyrants we complain about, e.g. Western complicity in the Indonesian genocide against E. Timor; CIA overthrow of democratic governments in Guatemala and Iran in the 1950s; Ronald Reagan selling weapons to both Saddam and Khomeini (when they were fighting the Iran-Iraq war), and so on.
Bill Khan
Dec 4th 2009, 16:54
The uS has already spent more than $100 billion in the Afghan fighting. It costs $1 million to keep one american soldier in afghanistan. If the US had spent only 10% of the total already spent on schools, hospitals and irrigation system and infrstructure, the people of Afghanistan would have been their friends for generations. The pathans of afghanistan and pakistan Population roughly 45 millions) are the largest tribe in world. The US, india and ilts allies the Northren alliance is pushing the Pathan tribes in to submission. The talibans were the creation of the US/Saudi Arabia/Pakistan to essentially drive out the Mujahieens who fought against the Soviets. Talibans were given all support by the troika to keep Afghanistan under control with an iron grip and to ward off forces of both india and Iran till the time NATO was ready to come in. Talibans were used on a caretaker basis.
Today India is deperate to get a transit route through pakistan to markets of the rich central asia, so does china and ofcourse NATO desperately too. All sides are putting in money and blood to get a foothold in the area.
Pakistan knows its crucial importance and using it.
solomon wilhelm
Dec 4th 2009, 15:51
E.Muscat, God calls on us to be non judgmental peacemakers, I pray that you will see that the matters in Afghanistan are theirs alone to deal with. Its very sad that people have such a short sense of history. The poor people in Afghanistan have had their country wrecked as a result of Superpowers such as the United States and Russia funneling in billions of dollars of Arms. You will never fight terrorism with military force. Kill them with kindness and love. If we stop trying to influence th world by supporting conflicts in far away lands, it is much less likely that terrorism will be targeted towards our countries. We could start by withdrawing forces from Afghanistan and Iraq, and stop funding Israel's unjust occupation of Palestine.
E.Muscat
Dec 4th 2009, 14:45
Afghan and pakistani problems were initially created by the pakistanis trying to get rid of the russians from afghanistan with the help of their american masters and at the same time create problems for India.The situation has now completely changed with the americans sensibly siding with India and the monster that the pakistanis created now turning against them.The americans and the europeans should get out completely out of the area and give just enough aid( which should be completely dependent on results) to the pakistanis to control the situation.If the situation deteriorates in afghanistan just nuke the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan to create an artificial border of death wide hundred of kilometers as
a no man's land,burn the poppy fields with napalm,cut all links with afghanistan and have drones patrol the country with missiles.