Stepping on a hornet's nest

It is just about a done deal. Barring last minute re-thinking, John Dalli will be going to Brussels as the Malta-nominated commissioner. He will have to be endorsed by the European Parliament, like all other commissioners. But that will happen after some over all behind-the-scenes haggling between MEPs and José Manuel Barroso.

It has been a drawn-out affair, but one that is now easy to read. For reasons best known to him, but which can be conjectured, the Prime Minister decided to offer the post to Mr Dalli.

He had, actually, four contenders to choose from and not three as I suggested in this column a few weeks ago. In addition to Mr Dalli, incumbent Joe Borg and Richard Cachia Caruana there was also former Minister Michael Frendo to take into account.

Lawrence Gonzi mulled and mulled. There is no doubting the political weight and abilities Mr Dalli will be taking along with him. Yet, what probably made up Dr Gonzi's mind were domestic considerations. Mr Dalli is an important cog in the Cabinet. It is clear, however, that he and Dr Gonzi are not exactly bosom friends.

The revelation by Mr Dalli that Nationalist back-benchers see him as some sort of a father confessor was probably a strong input in the Prime Minister's calculations.

It is highly unlikely that Mr Dalli would have led any sort of rebellion. But he was becoming a reference point for the unease that, openly or not, bedevils government backbenches.

In doing away with Dalli from the cabinet the Prime Minister will be losing his most experienced ministerial asset, someone who could and should have been a reference point for him, not just the backbenchers.

Now it is probably up to Mr Dalli to give the final aye or nay. I rather suspect that, after 16 years in or close to the Cabinet, he will have had enough of that role. That will be an operational loss for the duration of this government before a probable change of political masters at the next general election.

Mr Dalli's responsibilities, combining social security and health, make for a giant ministry with two huge knots that require further unravelling. The Prime Minister will probably split the ministry and use the move to increase the size of his Cabinet. Smart money is on Joe Cassar, currently Parliamentary Secretary for Health, being made a minister with that portfolio. (Suggestions that it will be Austin Gatt who moves there do seem rather wild.)

Chris Said is touted to move from parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister into a reconstituted Ministry of Social Services. His place, it is hinted, will be filled by Robert Arrigo. I doubt whether all that will take place as rumoured. Mr Arrigo, for instance, might feel that being kept outside his speciality, tourism, leaves him still out in the cold.

Whatever happens, dissatisfied hornets will buzz more and more on the backbenches where a considerable number of young and not-so-young pretenders reside. The Prime Minister could still some of that buzzing by further increasing his management pool, possibly by adding two other parliamentary secretaries. Were he to do that it would be simply for political convenience.

The management team, taking the ministers and parliamentary secretaries together, is already more than big enough for our size of island which, elsewhere, boasts little more than a local council. One of Dr Gonzi's best moves after he scraped in at the 2008 general election was to cut back the size of his Cabinet.

If he goes into reverse gear now not only would he burden the country with fresh expenses. He would confirm that the criticism from within has wounded and weakened him, such that not even moving Mr Dalli away is enough. Ironically, several hornets will still remain to buzz in growing anger.