A three- or two-horse title race?

The 2009/10 Serie A campaign is already 12 matchdays old and the time is right to make an analysis of what has happened so far.

Everything points towards a three-horse title race with Inter firm favourites to win a fifth successive scudetto. Juventus are expected to rival Inter for the title whereas Milan are fast emerging as the dark horses.

Almost one-third of the season has been played with Inter maintaining their relentless march at the top, albeit their home draw against Roma enabled Juventus to cut the gap to five points.

Inter's lead is a healthy one but certainly not unassailable. With 78 points still up for grabs and with so many direct encounters to come, it is anyone's guess who will win the title come May. So far, Inter have been the most consistent side and their position at the summit has never been in jeopardy.

By contrast, Juventus have dropped too many points in their own backyard. Identical 1-1 home draws with Bologna and Fiorentina and a shock 2-3 upset against Napoli derailed Juve's challenge to dislodge Inter from the top.

If Juventus hope to bridge the gap with Inter by the time the two rivals clash in Turin on the 15th day, they must not surrender further points in their upcoming fixtures against Udinese (home) and Cagliari (away).

It is somewhat strange that Juventus have let in only one goal in four Champions League outings but conceded 13 in 12 Serie A games.

Milan made a disastrous start but a seven-match unbeaten run (four wins and three draws) has lifted them up the table. The seven-times European champions are third, seven points adrift of city neighbours Inter. The Rossoneri could still have a say in the title race but it looks like Inter and Juventus will be the two main contenders in what could turn out to be an epic struggle.

As was the case last season, Inter, Juventus and Milan are seen as favourites to occupy the top three positions at the end of the Serie A campaign.

This would leave only one Champions League berth on the line and a number of teams are aiming to challenge for this coveted prize, namely Fiorentina, Napoli, Roma, Palermo, Sampdoria and Genoa.

Champions League hopefuls Fiorentina are the hot favourites in this mini-league. The Viola are currently fourth, level on points with Sampdoria.

Progress to this season's Champions League knock-out stages could be counterproductive for Cesare Prandelli's side in their quest to gain a top-four finish for the third successive season. For Prandelli, who cannot count on a resourceful squad, much will depend on the number of injuries and suspensions his side suffer during the course of the season.

Sampdoria have struggled lately after an exhilarating start. Luigi Del Neri's side, like Napoli and Palermo, can focus exclusively on their league commitments.

Walter Mazzarri represents Napoli's bright new dawn. After a poor start, club president Aurelio De Laurentiis showed the backdoor to ex-Italy boss Roberto Donadoni and appointed the former Livorno, Reggina and Sampdoria mentor.

So far, this move has paid rich dividends as in a short period of time, Mazzarri has transformed Napoli from relegation strugglers to into a solid outfit capable of beating Fiorentina and Juventus and holding Milan to a 2-2 draw during a five-match undefeated run.

Palermo have been rather erratic so far. The Sicilians have the potential to do well this season but they badly lack consistency.

Roma are still a team without a proper tactical identity. The club from the capital did their pre-season and started the campaign under the charge of the attack-minded Luciano Spalletti, who quit Roma after only the second day.

His successor, Claudio Ranieri, is more pragmatic and has slowly changed the playing system of the team to a more prudent 4-4-2.

Roma are still up for sale according to president Rossella Sensi and this uncertainty is not helping the team's progress on the field of play. Lack of finances and reserves of strength are two concerns for Ranieri whose pre-set target is for Roma to claim a top-four finish.

Lazio could not have aspired for a brighter start as they lifted the Italian Super Cup at the expense of Inter in August and overcame Atalanta and Chievo in their first two league outings.

Since then, Davide Ballardini's side have been in freefall. Suffice to say that, like bottom side Siena, Lazio are winless in their last 10 outings and currently lie 16th, just two points above the relegation zone.

One fully understands club president Claudio Lotito's firm stance on rebels Goran Pandev and Cristian Ledesma, both of whom handed in transfer requests with a view to joining more ambitious teams last summer.

Given that Lazio are in the relegation mire and on the brink of a premature exit from the Europa League, it makes sense for Lotito to sell the unsettled players to the highest bidders in the forthcoming January transfer window and invest the money in new players.

Relegation battle

The relegation battle currently involves six teams but one can possibly roam up to mid-table to identify other potential candidates like Chievo and Udinese. Chievo have compensated for their poor home run by winning three games on the road. But one has doubts whether Chievo are equipped enough to continue winning on the away front.

By stark contrast, the Friulani have been rather inconsistent away from home - two draws in five outings.

Beyond doubt, apart from Samp's grand start, the two most pleasant surprises of the campaign so far have been the performances of Serie A newcomers Bari and Parma.

Bari, with 18 points to their credit and with the best defensive record in the entire division (only seven goals conceded), and Parma, on 20 points, can build on their positive start.

If these two sides keep their feet on the ground and stay focused on their target of avoiding relegation as early as possible, they can aspire to reach higher objectives towards the end of the season.