Illegal immigration figures are down by 50 per cent in comparison to last year. What has brought about this decline?

Ahmadu Aboa Ndenesse, 26, from Cameroon paid €1,300 to his traffickers to gain access to a large wooden fishing boat in Libyan waters.

After nine months in Libya, where he saw several of his friends arrested, and an aborted crossing attempt due to bad weather, Mr Ndenesse landed in Malta on February 1 along with 261 others.

He knows he is among the lucky ones who made it to Europe this year - even if his target destination was Italy, not Malta.

"Since then I hear the situation in Libya has become difficult, very difficult... many are scared," Mr Ndenesse told The Sunday Times.

His concerns are reflected in the number of boat people landing in Malta. A total of 1,397 immigrants have landed this year. That is the lowest figure since 2004, with 1,378 fewer arrivals than last year - so far.

Malta braced itself for the worst when 760 immigrants landed in the first two months of the year. And then something happened. As immigration dominated the run-up to the European elections, amid rising xenophobic sentiments, the figures went down - drastically - with just 16 boats landing.

Various reasons are being attributed to the drop in numbers. The most plausible argument is the controversial deal struck last May between Italy and Libya as part of a wider economic deal. Tripoli agreed to control the flow of immigrants towards Europe, while giving Italy's coastguard the right to return illegal immigrants intercepted at sea to Libyan shores.

Rescue officials who spoke to The Sunday Times said the deal struck between Italy and Libya led to a major decrease in the south Mediterranean route but a marked increase in the flows to Turkey and Greece.

One official said: "The criminal networks are now re-routing through Greece. They are flying their clients to Istanbul and then they go to Izmir and embark on rubber dinghies or speed boats. The journey to Greece is very short."

According to Italian Home Affairs Minister Roberto Maroni, since May 5, when the Italy-Libya agreement was implemented, there has been a drop of 90 per cent in landings on the Italian coast. The initiative was applauded in Malta, with an increasingly vocal anti-immigration lobby urging the government to take Italy's cue.

However, it has infuriated human rights organisations and the Vatican, since the push-back failed to assess the migrants' eligibility for asylum. Libya is not a signatory to the UN convention for refugees.

A spokesman for UNHCR told The Sunday Times there is little doubt the arrangement between Italy and Libya has made it more difficult for migrants and asylum seekers to cross the Mediterranean.

"The UNHCR is concerned about the situation since a significant number of those crossing by sea are in fact refugees and asylum seekers. With the limited possibilities of finding safety in Libya, the grave risks linked to the actions of smugglers and traffickers, and a further tightening of asylum policies in Europe, the result is that too many people in need of protection are unable to find safety."

The spokesman recalled the precarious nature of crossing the Mediterranean Sea, where migrants' and asylum seekers' lives hang in the balance.

The deal has not eliminated the occasional diplomatic spat between Italy and Malta over who should assume responsibility for taking immigrants who are stranded at sea.

Human trafficking is said to have been big business in Libya, with different officials believed to have had a finger in the pie - before the Libyan government started its crackdown. There are also reports that a factory producing boats specifically for immigrants was shut down.

A spokesman for the EU border agency, Frontex, Michal Parzyszek believes there are a number of reasons behind the decline. The strengthening of border control operations, which coordinated the assets of 10 member states at Malta's borders, combined with agreements such as the one between Italy and Libya have probably triggered a shift of the illegal migratory flow towards the eastern Mediterranean route, he said.

Some nationalities, such as Somalis whose detection plummeted dramatically, seem to be targeting Kenya, South Africa or are trying to transit through the Arabic peninsula, Mr Parzyszek explained.

Libya has signed no readmission agreement with Europe so far but a number of other deals are believed to have redirected the flow, sometimes even stemming it. For example, a bilateral agreement was signed last April between Libya and Niger for intercepted migrants.

"At last, we note the commitment of the Libyan authorities to counter facilitation networks within their own ranks and to strengthen controls," Mr Parzyszek said.

Italy also adopted amendments to its penal code in order to discourage illegal stays.

Mr Parzyszek said the international recession had contracted the jobs market in EU states and this might have also played a role in the decline. However, the impact of the recession was probably minimal seeing that many immigrants often spend three to 12 months travelling and working in different hubs along the route.

A spokesman for the Armed Forces said that while the number of immigrants from Africa arriving in Malta this year had practically halved, the number of immigrants arriving in Lampedusa or Sicily has been even lower.

"It is still too early to determine with a degree of certainty whether immigrants are choosing different routes. Quoting numbers of immigrants landing on European soil, like Greece, Cyprus or Spain, might also not be good enough because one needs to also verify the countries of origin, and the transportation means used by immigrants to reach the port of departure before making the sea crossing."

Back at the Marsa Open Centre, Mr Ndenesse said the scenario has changed to a large extent as human traffickers become even more dangerous to deal with.

"I've heard of many traffickers who demand money from the immigrants and then run away with it, without fulfilling their side of the deal. I've heard of traffickers who now demand the fee - twice - and then report the immigrants to the police.

"The government is cracking down on the main areas of trafficking. The business is evidently being watched closer. But many, many immigrants are still in Libya waiting to cross. The desperation persists."

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