Mellow autumn set to be blown away by gales

A year is a long time in weather. At the end of October 2008 we were shivering and sliding our way along frosty, icy and, in some cases, snowy streets as winter took an early grip that it was often loathe to relax through the following months.

Maximum temperatures were in single figures, which is startling to recall when we consider the balmy mid-autumn in which the UK currently finds itself.

Temperatures have been unseasonably high, climbing into the high teens and peaking at 19.6°C on Tuesday in Gravesend, Kent. Yesterday saw temperatures of around 19°C in places as well, close to breaking the October 29 date record of 19.2°C.

This does not give us much of a clue as to how the coming late autumn and winter will develop but we are going to see weather far more befitting the time of year as the page on the calendar flips over to November: a week is also a long time in weather.

This weekend an explosively deepening low pressure system is going to cross northern Scotland, bringing gales and heavy rain to most of the UK, particularly on Sunday. In fact, this is going to be a significant storm, with gusts of 40 to 60 mph expected in many areas, and in excess of 80 mph in the most susceptible spots, which are likely to be in northeast Scotland and around the North Channel between Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The balmy and quiescent weather that has enveloped much of the country means that there are still a lot of leaves on our trees. These will present a lot of air resistance, and so there will be more than just vast numbers of leaves hurriedly falling. While not near the magnitude of the Burns Night Storm of 1990 or the Great Storm of 1987, these winds are likely to be sufficient to bring down whole trees, and cause structural damage.