Lisbon Treaty not radical, just right

The EU project remains "essentially one of the elite" even with the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty, according to an Irish academic.

Deemed to be a leading authority on the Lisbon Treaty, John O'Brennan, a lecturer in European Politics at the National University of Ireland said the new treaty does attempt to allow national parliaments greater involvement in the decision-making process and also opens the possibility for citizen initiatives. But it remains essentially a project of the elite.

In Malta to address the Euro-Mediterranean seminar organised by the Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies a few days ago, Dr O'Brennan said Lisbon was not a radical treaty.

"It is a modest treaty when compared to the Maastricht Treaty, which had created the euro and the single market project. Lisbon is a tidying exercise to bring coherence to policy processes," he said in an interview with The Times.

The more important aspects, he added, were the creation of an EU high representative to deal with foreign affairs and the election of a council president for two years.

"These will help solidify the EU brand on the world stage but other than this the treaty just tidies things up and that is how I think it should have been," he said.

Asked about speculation on Tony Blair becoming EU council president, Dr O'Brennan said he had signed the "Stop Blair" petition.

"Tony Blair had come to power in the UK on the premise that he was Britain's most pro-EU Prime Minister but we never got that. He constantly went to the EU council with his red lines and allowed the highly sceptical Murdoch press to dictate the UK's EU policy," Dr O'Brennan said.

On a more positive note, he added, Mr Blair did show an ability to mediate between different factions when bringing about peace in Northern Ireland and that could be useful to mediate between the differing interests of member states.

"Mr Blair is also a global figure, which could give the EU a stronger global presence, but it is difficult at this stage to speculate about names because first and foremost the roles of president and high representative have to be better defined," he said.

The Lisbon Treaty does give specific definition as to the role of high representative but is vague when it describes the President's role.

A lot of factors would come into play before any names could be talked of with certainty, Dr O'Brennan said.

"One such factor is the UK's semi-detached member state status. The UK's scepticism will become more intense if the Conservatives come to power next year. If Tony Blair is at the helm of the EU we would have to see how comfortable he will be dealing with a conservative government," he said.

With a keen interest in EU enlargement, Dr O'Brennan said the Union's largest ever single enlargement in 2004 did not create the institutional breakdown many thought it would with the new member states "adapting well".

The decision-making structures have been tried and tested over the past five years and in his view further enlargement in the Western Balkans should not create institutional problems.

The academic shot down the argument that the EU faced enlargement fatigue and had to allow more time to pass before accepting new member states.

"The EU has functioned with 27 members and I suspect that the argument about enlargement fatigue is a convenient excuse for some people in the EU who do not want the Western Balkan states to join."

"I have seen little serious engagement, except for Croatia, by the EU to negotiate in earnest with other Western Balkan countries and I suspect we will not see any new member states from the region in the next five years," he said.

It was "appalling", he added, that Iceland's membership process was being fast-tracked despite the level of domestic scepticism while that of Balkan states was dragging along very slowly even though the level of enthusiasm was much higher.