Not any Tom, Dick or Harry

Who will be the next Maltese member of the European Commission? Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi is keeping his cards very close to his chest. Certainly, he has not taken the PN parliamentary group into his confidence. If he had, by accident or design the decision would have leaked out.

What of the Cabinet? It has to be involved. When Eddie Fenech Adami offered to nominate me to the EU Court of Auditors in 2004 he made it clear to me that he had the Cabinet's full backing. I doubt, though, that the Cabinet is now in the know as yet. First among equals Dr Gonzi is not telling yet.

There are three well-known candidates. Dr Joe Borg has been Commissioner for five years. He is a strong contender. Richard Cachia Caruana has been at the helm of Malta's presence in Brussels, after he negotiated the intricate accession process.

He too is a strong contender. He has many enemies. Most of his supposed Nationalist comrades fear or resent him, rather than like him. With the departure of Dr Fenech Adami from active politics he was thought to have lost his bite. Not quite, as it turned out. He was asked to give more than a helping hand in the PN strategy group assembled when the 2008 electoral campaign seemed all but lost.

Since then there are instances known to a few where his old role has been resuscitated. Even if that is set aside, he remains a major candidate.

What Mr Cachia Caruana doesn't know about Brussels and EU machinations is not worth knowing. Malta's equivalent to the UK's Peter Mandelson, he would make a very successful commissioner.

John Dalli is the third touted name and he is just as strong in terms of weight and capabilities. He has all the attributes that a commissioner should possess. He can master or write briefs with ease. He has presence, width and depth.

The smart money is on him. The kites being flown suggest that PM Gonzi remains uncomfortable with the adversary he beat to gain the leadership, a man who has more experience and is thereby considered of heavier weight.

It is also touted that putting Mr Dalli in the EU commission would liberate political space for the Prime Minister. He would be rid of the self-confessed father confessor to the PN backbench and would also have room to manoeuvre with a reshuffle and new appointments.

I think not. A Cabinet gap now would create more problems than solutions. Also, Lawrence Gonzi can look beyond his nose. Although Mr Dalli in a recent interview has talked up the commissioner post, possibly just in case he is nudged there, I don't think the PM will be doing the nudging. He needs Mr Dalli, the only technocrat in the Cabinet. Given freer rein and allocated more resources by the Finance Minister, Mr Dalli can knock the social and health services into better shape over the remaining life of the Nationalist government.

That would be a greater monument than the new Parliament building or the reconstructed Palace Square. It would be a definite result, not a mere symbol. And it isn't as if Mr Dalli would break public ranks.

He is a Nationalist first and foremost, no matter how badly he was treated when he was forced to resign on the basis of false allegations.

The race then, is between Dr Borg and Mr Cachia Caruana. The Prime Minister may not have solved, in his mind, the dilemma of who is to replace the latter. I doubt that he has a strong alternative. The odds, then, are that the PM will plumb for Joe Borg once again. He deserves a second term on his own merits, not by default. He has had a good first term.

While the PM continues to mask his cards, one thing is certain: he won't make a public announcement before he takes his restive parliamentary group into his confidence. And the moment he does that, the name will be out before the OPM has issued an embargoed media release. That is the state of PN political play at the moment.