Concluding the Lisbon Treaty

This week's European Union summit is expected to be dominated by institutional issues and the way forward for the Lisbon Treaty, even though climate change, the economic situation and illegal immigration are expected to be on the agenda. The treaty has now been approved by Irish voters and signed by the Polish President but not by the Czech President, so there remains a final stumbling block to it entering into force.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus' excuse for holding up the Lisbon Treaty - he wants an opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights in the treaty to prevent ethnic Germans expelled from the former Czechoslovakia after the war from reclaiming expropriated property - cannot be taken too seriously, but nonetheless has to be addressed.

Legal experts point out that the Charter of Fundamental Rights can only be used when EU decisions are being put into effect and cannot be applied retrospectively, so it has no relevance to the question of Czech property rights after the war. Furthermore, this issue was never brought up by the Czech government when the treaty was being negotiated, so why should Klaus, who is not the head of the government, bring it up now?

A major problem to Klaus' latest request is that, if his opt-out clause was granted, Slovakia has made it clear it would insist on the same treatment, demanding guarantees that ethnic German and Hungarian deportees would not make claims over confiscated property, thereby further complicating the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty.

Ultimately, though, EU leaders cannot force Klaus to put his signature to the treaty. One hopes the issue will be resolved at Thursday's summit because too much time has already been spent discussing institutional matters. One solution could be for the summit conclusions to include some sort of declaration which would satisfy Klaus' demand over property rights - and prevent the need for the treaty to be renegotiated by the 27 member states.

Klaus, however, might finally be resigned to the treaty. Last week, he compared Lisbon to an unstoppable speeding train, hinting that he may have to sign it. Nevertheless, he will not be able to put his signature to the treaty until the country's constitutional court rules on a legal challenge filed by group of pro-Klaus senators. The court is due to meet and issue its judgement on Tuesday.

If the court throws out the challenge, which most observers expect it to do, then Klaus will probably sign the treaty, as long as he gets some sort of acknowledgement regarding his demand over property rights. The sooner Klaus signs the better, as the EU's ultimate nightmare scenario (although I don't think it will get to this stage) is for Klaus to delay his signature until next year's election in the UK, which is expected to be won by the Conservative Party.

This would mean the end of Lisbon as a Conservative government will without doubt hold a referendum on the treaty which will be rejected by British voters.

Although the Lisbon Treaty has to be ratified by all 27 member states before decisions are taken on the formation of the next European Commission as well as the appointment of the President of the European Council and the high representative for foreign policy, this week's summit is expected to discuss such job allocations.

The Lisbon Treaty creates the posts of European Council President - who will chair EU summit meetings - as well as a foreign policy chief (currently Javier Solana) who will have his own diplomatic service and a seat on the European Commission and will chair meetings of EU foreign ministers as well as administer the multi-billion EU aid budget. Possible candidates for this latter post include outgoing German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeirer, former British Commissioner Chris Patten and European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

The Lisbon Treaty, once ratified, gives each member state the right to appoint its own Commissioner, and we can expect Commission president José Manuel Barroso to be intensely lobbied by EU leaders at the summit over the allocation for Commission portfolios. Officially, no country has announced its nominee for Commissioner, and the present Commission is expected to remain in office a little while longer on a caretaker basis until Lisbon is ratified.

The front-runner for the post of European Council President is still Tony Blair, yet his appointment is in no way guaranteed, especially since the EU is still undecided over the precise role of this new job. Furthermore, the recent warning by Britain's Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague that a Blair appointment would be seen as a hostile gesture towards a future Conservative government certainly wouldn't have helped his candidacy.

Blair's past support for the Iraq war will work against him but he is certainly the most high-profile of the candidates and would give the EU a prominent voice on the global stage. Other candidates mentioned include Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, Dutch Prime Minister Jean Peter Balkenende and former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schussel. We can expect plenty of haggling at this week's summit.