Winner all but confirmed

On Monday, the 30th Rolex Middle Sea Race had its first boat home and yesterday it appears to have its winner.

Andres Soriano's Alegre (GBR) is solidly heading the provisional timesheets as Day Four drew to a close. It will take a miracle for anyone on the course to finish inside the time set by the 69-foot Mills design.

By 17.30 yesterday, only nine boats had completed the 606 nautical mile course, with Nikata (GBR) crossing the finish line just after 17.00.

Nadejda (RUS) and Calipso 4 (ITA) were almost home but the remaining yachts were spread between Favignana and Lampedusa.

What was a fast ride for some has proved a painfully slow one for others. Unquestionably, this year, the prevailing weather has favoured the larger yachts in the battle for overall victory. A complete turnaround from 2008.

Soriano and his crew are hugely popular winners. The plaudits for their achievement have come from every quarter, particularly the pro-sailed yachts at the head of the fleet that Alegre has comprehensively beaten over the course of this year's race.

Robert Scheidt, four-time Olympic medal winner and helm on Luna Rossa (ITA), felt Alegre had sailed an almost perfect race.

He said: "They did an amazing job. They pushed the boat very well, preserved their equipment in the strong winds and when they needed to make decisions they made the right ones."

For Soriano it is a dream come true. Last year he celebrated line honours victory in Malta. This year victory is even sweeter, it is on handicap and therefore overall.

In both cases he has turned the tables on some of the most competitively sailed maxis and mini-maxis, crewed by some of the greatest exponents of offshore and inshore racing. This is no mean feat.

"It's just an amazing feeling," Soriano said.

"When we crossed the finish line, just doing as well as we had against such tremendous competition brought tears to my eyes while thanking the crew. The news that we've almost certainly won is just overwhelming."

As an experienced offshore sailor, he is wise enough to know that luck with the wind has been on his side. The developing frontal system that passed over the course over the past few days effectively removed two thirds of the fleet from the equation.

Even so, Alegre has had to sail the conditions better than the likes of Patrizio Bertelli's Luna Rossa (ITA), Karl Kwok's Beau Geste (HKG) and Niklas Zennstrom's Rán II (GBR).

Soriano is also wise enough to know that some luck may have been on his side in surviving the conditions of the first night and second morning. Alegre completed the course whilst the likes of Rosebud/Team DYT (US) and Bella Mente (US) failed to do so.

Meanwhile, there is teamwork and support being shown in abundance on the course as the 36 yachts still racing push on to finish the race.

Leading the pack approaching Lampedusa is Tonnerre de Breskens III (NED).

Behind Tonnerre, local rivals Sandro Musu/Aziza and Lee Satariano/Artie have been sailing within sight of each other for much of the race.

Both have found time to call in reporting a frustrating period of light wind has now improved. They are now sailing upwind, but in a steady 15-knots.

Artie expects to be home late tonight or early tomorrow. Expect a crescendo of noise in Marsamxett if the two enter together.