Ukraine opens election campaign

Whatever happened to Ukraine’s Orange Revolution?

As the country starts its first presidential election campaign since that popular movement in 2004 broke the grip of the post-Soviet establishment, its leader, President Viktor Yushchenko, stares a painful reality in the face.

Opinion polls point to Viktor Yanukovich, his disgraced Moscow-backed opponent back then, getting easily through a January 17 election to go into a run-off vote.

Just as bitter for Mr Yushchenko – his erstwhile “Orange” ally but now rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, is almost certain to be the other player in the second-round showdown, analysts say.

The 55-year-old President has ratings so low that none but his most loyal supporters see a chance of re-election.

Most Ukrainians hope the vote, for which official campaigning begins today, will end five years of political in-fighting that has para-lysed decision-making and frustrated reform in one of Europe’s worst performing economies. It will also decide the extent to which the ex-Soviet state of 47 million will stick to Mr Yushchenko’s pro-western blueprint or toe a more compliant line towards its old master, Russia.

No matter who triumphs, most analysts expect renewed efforts to improve frosty ties with Russia – including pushing the pursuit of Nato membership firmly on to the back-burner – without abandoning the democratic strides Ukraine has made. The two have been involved in disputes over the pricing and supply of Russian natural gas across Ukrainian territory to Europe. The Russian Black Sea fleet based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol could become a serious source of friction.