Observers call for Afghanistan election run-off

International observers called for an election run-off in Afghanistan after a U.N.-backed fraud watchdog on Monday invalidated tens of thousands of votes for President Hamid Karzai from August's disputed first round.

The Aug. 20 vote, marred by allegations of widespread fraud, has fanned tension between President Hamid Karzai and Western governments whose troops are fighting a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan.

The protracted voting process has complicated U.S. President Barack Obama's deliberations on whether to send thousands of additional troops to turn the tide in the eight-year war.

U.S. group Democracy International said the report by the Electoral Complaints Commission showed that the number of votes invalidated by the the U.N.-backed watchdog pushed Karzai's total below the 50 percent level needed to avoid a run-off against his main challenger, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.

Democracy International and the Washington-based U.S. Institute of Peace both said the ECC's audit showed Karzai now had about 48.3 percent, with Abdullah's total rising to about 31 percent from 28 percent.

"Democracy International ... believes the ECC audit decisions should result in a run-off election, according to Afghanistan's electoral law," it said in a statement sent to Reuters.

Provisional results had originally given Karzai 54.6 percent.

J. Alexander Thier, Afghanistan and Pakistan director for the U.S. Institute of Peace, said the ECC had thrown out votes from 210 polling stations of about 350 sampled, according to ECC data.

Diplomats in Kabul also said the findings, presented by the ECC as a dense report packed with dozens of pages of technical detail, effectively paved the way for a second round run-off.

"Everything we are hearing is pointing at the second round. That is what we are bracing for," said one Western diplomat.

WATCHDOG CRITICISED

Under Afghan law, the Afghan government-appointed Independent Election Commission (IEC) has to accept the findings, recalculate the tallies and then announce final results.

The picture could be thrown into further disarray if the IEC reject's the watchdog's findings. A member of Karzai's camp has already criticised the ECC procedure as wrong.

"The main question right now is what the IEC is going to do now, whether they are going to accept it," said the diplomat.

The IEC could not be reached for comment on the report.

Asked if a run-off was now inevitable, ECC head Grant Kippen could offer no explicit interpretation of the findings.

"We are not really concerned about that," he told Reuters. "We did our job ... It's now the IEC's responsibility to take that information and do the necessary adjustments."

FOREIGN MEDDLING?

Karzai has long warned against a second round and has hinted the ECC's investigation could have involved foreign meddling.

Even if a second round is required, analysts and Western observers have long said Karzai, a Pashtun from the country's traditional rulers and its largest ethnic group, would likely still emerge as the victor.

Abdullah has said he will urge his backers to accept the result if fraud complaints are properly investigated, but there are fears of ethnic violence among Afghanistan's fractured tribal groups if it is perceived Karzai's campaign was responsible for widespread fraud.

With violence at its worst levels since the Taliban were overthrown in 2001, analysts say continuing political uncertainty and infighting will also only embolden the militants more.

In Brussels, NATO said more clarity was needed in Afghan politics before the alliance decides on any substantial increase in troop levels.

Among other findings, the ECC report listed numerous polling stations as having 100 percent of ballots collected being suspicious, with uniform markings or with no ballot papers folded at all and marked with a felt marker.

A senior member of Karzai's election team has already strongly criticised the ECC before the report's publication.

"This (procedure) is not correct and this has brought down Karzai's tally," Mohammad Moin Marastyal, also a member of parliament, told Reuters. "Effort has been made to lower Karzai's vote to below 50 (percent). Now we are in a deadlock."