Circus has more years to run

The question whether the Gonzi government risks becoming unstable, first raised in a foreign magazine by an anonymous Maltese correspondent, is gaining currency. The Leader of the Opposition has taken to referring frequently to "this unstable" government. He wouldn't be saying that if he did not know something most of the rest of us are not familiar with. Let me guess among whom he might be in contact with.

There are government backbenchers who are believed to harbour some sort of grievance against their side. They include former ministers who were put out to grass, some of them quite unceremoniously and well before they had been in the Cabinet long enough to start feeling that they had overstayed their welcome by the measurement of the political game.

The discontented include others who remain left out of a ministerial or parliament-secretarial post notwithstanding they feel they merit positive consideration. There is another strand that makes up the rope that appears to be tying an embarrassing knot.

It includes some from the first two categories as well as others who are normally more reasonable and docile. The MPs who fit into it have been angered by a feeling that the Prime Minister has ignored them completely when taking significant decisions, such as whom to approach to be President of the Republic.

They acknowledge that the Prime Minister's choice, George Abela, has fitted the post like a hand in a right-sized glove. But, they demur, that is not the point. Which is that they learned about the decision from the newspapers and not because the Prime Minister took them into his confidence before the news broke.

The three strands make for quite a powerful length of rope. Is it enough to threaten to hang the government? The opposition seems to be toying with the idea. That is why it is pushing the government to bring forward for discussion its motion about how Enemalta went about selecting a supplier of equipment for the critical extension of the Delimara power plant.

Clearly, the opposition believes that there will be government backbenchers who will express less than delight at the way things were done. That view has been strengthened by interviews some backbenchers have been giving to the press and television.

These views, expressed in the context of whether the Gonzi government is becoming unstable, are quite potent. It isn't the opposition alone that is asking the instability question. It was recently put to me by a foreign diplomat who came around for my thoughts on the political set-up and situation.

The opinion that I gave him was that the government is not unstable in the sense that any of its members would vote against it on a motion of confidence. There is no one on the government backbenches with the physical and mental apparatus of Dom Mintoff, who stood up to the Sant government over a motion that was not one of confidence before it was made so by the Sant Cabinet.

I retain that view. I also exclude the likelihood that anyone within the Cabinet - specifically, John Dalli - is positioning to benefit in leadership terms from some rebellion by backbench MPs, even though some of them see him as a father confessor. That is not to say, however, that Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi is having it easy.

He definitely is not. He is in a long season of discontent. His authority is undermined by disturbing public statements and internal squabbles, as occurred in a weekend parliamentary group meeting chaired by him. It is good that backbenchers speak their minds. They help the leader or capo more than MPs who grow hoarse by cheering and crick their necks by nodding in constant agreement rather than thinking and expressing their considered thinking.

Still, it is rare for divergences of opinion to be expressed publicly, though there is nothing wrong with that in democratic terms. We live in interesting times. But there will be no snap election. Discontented Nationalist MPs will not push for that. Nor will Dr Gonzi play into Labour's hands. This circus has almost four more years to run.