On Friday, Irish voters will take a second shot at the Lisbon Treaty in another referendum following the rejection of the Treaty in June last year. This time round, though, they are less likely to shoot it down and there are good reasons for that.

The first is that, since June last year, the world economy collapsed exposing the vulnerability of the "Celtic tiger", which had roared ahead for the past two decades. Irish voters suddenly realised that their economic well-being was not just a matter of flair as much as a result of their strong links with Europe and with America.

The global turmoil hit the Irish economy hard and people have now come to terms with reality. Thankfully, and in contrast to Iceland, the euro currency saved the Irish from a total wipe-out.

So two days ahead of Friday's referendum, polls suggest that, this time round, Irish voters reckon that shooting down the Lisbon Treaty just for the heck of it is a bit like shooting themselves in the foot.

The second reason is that, since the rejection of the Treaty last year, the Irish government managed to secure considerable concessions from other EU leaders that address the fears that led to the rejection in the first place. Thus, for instance, Ireland secured guarantees that the EU would not interfere on family issues (such as abortion), on taxation or on neutrality. Moreover, Ireland also secured a commitment that all EU countries would continue to be able to appoint an EU commissioner, a right that would otherwise have been lost from this year.

To say that the Irish were successful negotiators is to put it mildly. And their success comes to the delight of other small countries, such as Malta, which has long harboured similar concerns that troubled Irish voters. Indeed, Malta had itself wrought its own guarantees on abortion and neutrality back in 2002. But the new concessions on taxation and the commissioner are now a welcome windfall for us too.

Whether this will be enough to appease Irish voters is yet to be seen. But if opinion polls are right, there is a good chance that they will.

And so Dublin will take us to Lisbon.

Or will it?

Perhaps not. If the Irish referendum goes through, the Lisbon Treaty would still require the ratification of two final countries out of 27 before entering into force in January. In Poland and the Czech Republic ratification still needs the final sign-off of their respective Presidents. In both cases, the Presidents have already publicly stated that they would proceed with the final signature if the Irish referendum goes through.

However, the prickly President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus, a known Euro-sceptic, may harbour other plans. He has markedly failed to quell rumours that, rather than sign off instantly, he would instead wait further until elections are eventually held in this country, which has been run by a technocrat government for the past six months.

If that delay extends well into next year, then the Lisbon Treaty could be heading for renewed trouble. For, in May next year, general elections are due in the UK with the Euro-sceptic Conservatives, led by David Cameron, strongly tipped to oust Gordon Brown out of office. And even though the UK has already fully ratified the Lisbon Treaty, the Conservatives are pledging a referendum which, they claim, would empower them to reverse the ratification if the treaty is not yet in force.

Small wonder then, that in the European Parliament, the Conservatives have quit our EPP group to cuddle up with the parties of the Czech and Polish Presidents.

Aided and abetted by a rabidly Euro-sceptic British media, the Conservative Party is today a far cry from the party that took Britain into the then EEC in the early 1970s. They are now a Euro-sceptic party dead set against any moves towards further European integration. And the Conservatives who want to see Britain lead Europe from the centre are now few and far between, often shunned by their own party.

In this respect, the Conservatives are only out-shone by the even more militant UK Independence Party (UKIP), which advocates outright British withdrawal from the EU.

Indeed, addressing the European Parliament plenary just a few days ago, the UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, announced that, for the first time, a recent opinion poll revealed that the majority in Britain now want their country to leave the EU. Only to be met with spontaneous retorts from other MEPs in the Chamber that "you are free to leave!" and... "goodbye!".

So, on Friday, Dublin may well take us to Lisbon.

But Prague, Warsaw or even London may yet spoil the fun.

Ask Your MEP on www.simonbusuttil.eu.

Dr Busuttil is a Nationalist member of the European Parliament.