Australia's asylum seeker influx

Australia is seeing the biggest stream of asylum seeker arrivals for seven years, forcing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's government to defend border protection policies.

Following are some questions and answers about whether border laws and illegal immigration could become an election issue for the first time since 2001, when asylum seekers split the nation and delivered an unexpected re-election victory to conservatives.

What is causing the latest influx?

The government blames the latest surge in illegal arrivals on conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the end of Sri Lanka's long ethnic civil war.

Home Affairs Minister Brendan O'Connor says there were 42 million forcibly displaced people around the world at the end of last year, including 15.2 million refugees. Asylum claims last year rose 28 per cent, creating "push" factors outweighing the lure, or "pull", of relaxed Australian immigration law changes, he says.

Europe is the main destination for asylum seekers with 333,000 claims registered last year, led by France with 35,400 and Britain with 30,500. In comparison, 4,750 people sought asylum in Australia last year, Mr O'Connor says.

Will it change Australian policy?

The government dismantled tough immigration and asylum laws after its 2007 election win, closing down "Pacific Solution" detention centres in small Pacific island countries. It said detention would only be used for security, but kept processing refugees at a A$400 million detention centre on Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean.

The government has increased ships and aircraft patrolling the remote north coast to intercept asylum boats before they reach Australian soil.

The latest boatpeople influx is unlikely to bring change unless it becomes a large issue for Mr Rudd, threatening his near-record standing in opinion surveys.

Voters so far have had little interest in the surge, largely distracted by everything from economic concerns and rising joblessness to end-of-year football grand finals.

But analysts and academics say that could change if a large boatload evaded patrols and arrived at a port. But while Labour may toughen policy if it again became a major political issue, it is not expected to re-impose the "Pacific Solution".

Will it be an election issue?

It depends on whether arrivals continue to build.

The opposition has in recent weeks been targetting the government, claiming weaker immigration policies have emboldened people smugglers. But the conservatives are themselves divided under a more moderate leadership that succeeded former Prime Minister and "Pacific Solution" architect John Howard.

It is hard to see more support for the return of a tougher approach unless asylum numbers reach into the tens of thousands, as they did before 2001. Concern about job security would then make the issue a more attractive club to use on the government.

Critics say that could yet occur, with more boats arriving each week. (Reuters)

Factbox

Immigration has always been a hot political issue in Australia, a nation built by immigrants and which continues to rely on settlers for economic development.

Around one-in-four Australians were born overseas, including current Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who moved to Australia from Wales when she was a young child.

Here are some facts on Australian immigration and political developments.

History

• Immigration has been at the centre of Australia's modern economic development since the first European settlers arrived to set up a Sydney penal colony in 1788.

• Australia's modern immigration wave began after World War II, under a "populate or perish" policy to boost security and address labour shortages. Around 6.9 million people have settled since 1945, lifting the population from seven million to 21.8 million in 2009. The government expects 35 million by mid-century.

• A long-running White Australia policy discriminated against Chinese and Pacific Islander settlers in favour of white Europeans. The policy was gradually dismantled from 1949 and formally ended in 1973.

Refugee boats

• The first refugee boats to land on Australian shores arrived in the aftermath of the Vietnam war. Between 1976 and 1981, 2,059 Vietnamese boats arrived in northern Australia.

• About 300 boats a year landed in a second wave between 1989 and 1998, mostly from Cambodia, Vietnam and southern China.

• The latest surge, organised by people-smuggling operations and with mostly Middle East asylum seekers, began in 1990. Australia works with Indonesia to crack down on people smugglers.

Recent political developments

• Firebrand politician Pauline Hanson and her nationalist One Nation Party attracted almost one million votes at the 1998 election, after warning the country risked being swamped by Asians and calling for tighter immigration rules.

• In 2001, then-Prime Minister John Howard ordered commandos to stop a Norwegian freighter, the MV Tampa, carrying asylum seekers rescued from a sinking refugee boat, from docking at Australia's Christmas Island. That led to the "Pacific Solution", under which boats were intercepted at sea and sent to detention centres in Papua New Guinea and Nauru.

• Mr Howard, struggling in opinion polls, won his third straight election in late 2001, campaigning on a tough border stand and mandatory detention for illegal arrivals.

• Current Prime Minister Kevin Rudd won election in 2007 advocating a more humane asylum policy and ended the Pacific Solution, closing detention centres on Nauru and PNG. Arrivals are now only processed on Christmas Island.

Latest immigration, boatpeople figures

• In the year to June, 158,021 settlers arrived from more than 200 countries. New Zealand accounted for 16 per cent, Britain 13.6 per cent, India 10.9 per cent, China 10 per cent and South Africa 4.5 per cent. Australia also accepted 13,507 refugees.

• The migration programme for 2009-10 is set at 168,700, down about 11 per cent, due to the slowing economy.

• Two rickety boats carrying 40 asylum seekers were intercepted by Australia's navy on Sunday. A total of 1,640 asylum seekers have arrived this year on 28 boats, exceeding the total number of boats for the past seven years.