Who will be Malta's next Commissioner?

On Friday Ireland will hold a referendum once again to decide whether to ratify the Lisbon Treaty. After this, member states will have to to name their 'new' European Commissioners. For Lawrence Gonzi, this decision is not an easy one. Our correspondent in Brussels, Ivan Camilleri, analyses the choice the Prime Minister has to make.

A prestigious EU Commissioner post in Brussels is up for grabs. There are not many people in Malta who would turn down a job which comes with a €220,000 annual salary, plus many other perks and a pension that will put one's mind at rest for life.

Although to date few member states have disclosed the names they will be submitting to Commission President José Manuel Barroso after Friday's Irish referendum, the identity of several 'new' Commissioners is already known in Brussels. In fact, the discussion is already focusing on what portfolios they will get.

The timing of the decision to nominate a Commissioner, usually taken by the respective heads of government, is important since it is Mr Barroso who determines the portfolios of the new Commission. A late decision by member states may result in a Commissioner being assigned a less important portfolio than others as the most important assignments would have already been taken, though not officially announced.

Some of the current members of the Commission will be reappointed and this has already been announced by certain member states. Others will be definitely be replaced. In other cases, such as Malta, however, the picture is still unclear.

Commissioner-designates are normally senior ministers of an incumbent government, high-flying MEPs or leading government advisers. Just last week, Romania proposed its agriculture minister while Slovakia nominated its permanent representative to the EU.

There are few in Malta who fit the bill and the Prime Minister is likely to choose from a shortlist of three - made up of incumbent Commissioner Joe Borg, Malta's Permanent Representative to the EU Richard Cachia Caruana and Social Policy Minister John Dalli.

According to many, although the game is still wide-open, the Prime Minister will take the easiest way out and reappoint Dr Borg for a second term.

However, although this is the most likely decision, it might still create some ripples in the top echelons of his government. Some senior officials think that although Dr Borg has done a relatively good job, Malta cannot afford to re-nominate the same people to such posts. On the other hand, the other two contenders are considerably more controversial options than the former foreign minister.

For leading opinion-former Lino Spiteri the choice is straightforward. He said: "I think it would be appropriate if the Prime Minister consults the Leader of the Opposition on who should be appointed - but in my view it should be Dr Borg," the former Labour minister told this newspaper.

"All indications are that he has done a good job in Brussels and such an appointment merits two terms, if the first term is positive," he said.

Although not so direct, the former general secretary of the European Greens, Arnold Cassola, agrees.

"Now that Mr Barroso has been reappointed for a second term it is quite natural that Dr Borg is also reappointed as a sign of continuity," he said.

"I am not suggesting that there aren't other capable people of it in Malta but I think that Mr Barroso will push for Dr Borg."

Other opinion leaders who spoke to The Sunday Times remained non-committal as to who should be the Prime Minister's choice although they highlighted the necessary prerequisites of the new Commissioner.

"Ideally, a European Commissioner should be a person with experience at the top of a large organisation or entity, not necessarily a minister although political nous is very important," former PN minister Michael Falzon said.

"It has to be someone who is able to correctly assess, analyse and size-up situations and circumstances in a short time and also able to delegate work and work loyally as part of a group while heading and leading his own team. Belief in the European dream is, of course, essential.

"This is a tall order," Mr Falzon said, and "it is obvious that the number of suitable Maltese candidates is very limited".

Roderick Pace, president of the European Movement and a professor in EU studies at the University of Malta, would like to see a woman nominated instead of the usual "set menu" choice.

"An EU Commissioner should have the integrity, drive and vision that working for the EU in that position demands. The nominee should be well acquainted with European policy and know the intricacies and complexities of its bureaucracy. Several names are being bandied about, not a single woman among them. Have the likes of Joanna Drake been considered by our male-dominated conservative establishment?" Prof. Pace said.

"If the choice has to be made from the set menu which, according to rumour, has already been drawn up, I would suggest keeping the incumbent for many reasons: one being that he has already accumulated experience and has done a reasonably good job, while our permanent representation in Brussels has also done very well, though it needs to improve its style and communication with Maltese society. I do not think the head of the Representation is easily replaceable," he said, referring to Mr Cachia Caruana.

Either way, the Prime Minister has to make a final choice soon.

Three possible scenarios:

Re-appointing Joe Borg
The incumbent is a safe pair of hands for the Prime Minister and definitely the easiest choice of the three. A shy character by nature and more of a technocrat than a politician, Dr Borg has given Malta a good name in Brussels. Without any extra pomp or pretentions he has managed the difficult fisheries portfolio and also came up with the first EU maritime policy.

On the other hand, his character makes him look a little weak when it comes to defending Malta's positions with his colleagues, although the latest tuna issue proved the contrary. One downside is that he currently has a non-Maltese chef de cabinet, a no-go in terms of Malta's interests. He has also been there for five years and retaining him in this post is not necessarily liked by other aspirants.

At the same time, if reappointed this might work in Malta's favour by earning Dr Borg a more important portfolio due to his experience. However, the enlargement portfolio which is being rumoured will be of no benefit to Malta although personally prestigious for Dr Borg.

Appointing Richard Cachia Caruana
A controversial decision for Dr Gonzi which would most probably ruffle feathers more among the Nationalist Party than Labour, but could be good for Malta's interests.

The driver of Malta's EU negotiations and current Permanent Representative to the EU is definitely a tough choice for the Prime Minister even though Mr Cachia Caruana is keen on the position.

Mr Cachia Caruana is recognised as a person who delivers and he would fight for Malta's interests. However, although he is a sophisticated workaholic who has been the PN's main strategist for the past 20 years, his short-temper, perfectionist nature and lack of human relations - even with ministers and high ranking public officers - have made him enemies within his own party, and some PN backbenchers would not be happy if he were to be made Commissioner.

Another problem for Dr Gonzi would be to find a replacement for Mr Cachia Caruana in Brussels. This will be no easy task as very few people have as much insight as the current Permanent Representative. The natural alternative to Mr Cachia Caruana would be Simon Busuttil, but since he is such a big vote puller and an MEP, other things might be expected of him in future.

Appointing John Dalli
The rehabilitated Social Policy Minister will also be a good choice for Malta's interests, as he is a proven fighter with a good brain. He knows Brussels well as he used to work in the city, although he is less conversant with today's EU politics and is virtually entirely unknown in the EU capital.

Although he publicly states he is not interested in the post, Mr Dalli's close collaborators say that the 61-year-old former Finance Minister, who has very good relations with Libya, would take the position if it was offered to him.

Although Mr Dalli is a senior minister, he is not considered to be among the best performers in the current government and is frequently away from the island. His nomination would, of course, precipitate some form of Cabinet reshuffle. Although this might be the wish of many government backbenchers hoping to be promoted, it might not be uppermost in the Prime Minister's mind at the moment - particularly as he has just a one-seat majority.

Though a Cabinet reshuffle would close some wounds, it will also open fresh ones as not all PN MPs can become ministers or parliamentary secretaries, even though they all want to.