Recession may have slowed down migration

The lull in the flow of migrants from north Africa this year may be just a "pause" resulting from the global economic downturn, according to a report by the EU's border control agency Frontex.

The slowdown in illegal immigration is probably not linked to some crackdown by Libya, as is widely believed, but is likely to have been caused by the economic slowdown, Frontex believes.

Its report predicts that illegal immigration may soon rise again once the EU's economy starts regaining ground.

"The employment crisis, given its impact on public opinion, political decisions and social cohesion, is considered the central factor linking the current recession with illegal migration.

"Specifically, more illegal migrants are likely to postpone their migration decisions, while those already present in the EU are likely to weather the crisis there. Paradoxically, enhanced border management probably keeps in member states a number of illegal migrants who would have otherwise left," the report states.

Unemployment has risen sharply in the EU over the past year due to the downturn and Malta, although perhaps to a lesser extent, is no exception. On the other hand, the number of illegal immigrants reaching our shores this year is almost half that of the past few years.

The same is happening in Italy, which has imposed a forced return policy widely believed to be behind the decline in numbers of would-be immigrants crossing the central Mediterranean.

The Frontex study, however, has a different take: "The current decreasing trend of illegal migration generates a kind of a pause, ending when labour demand in member states starts to rise. The decreasing trend is likely to stabilise only in the latter part of 2010, though the significance of this finding needs to be studied further."

Employment opportunity in the EU, both legal and illegal, is the major pull factor for illegal immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa who try to reach Libya in order to then make the desperate, hazardous sea voyage to reach Europe.

The Frontex report says that empirical research and available intelligence shows that illegal migration to EU member states is mainly income-generating migration, regardless of the initial causes or pull factors.

"In this respect, the two most important factors affecting the scale of illegal migration flows are availability of work in member states and the likelihood of crossing the border without being returned."

According to the study, other factors like the situation in the countries of origin seem to play a less significant role in determining the scale of illegal migration to the EU.