Irish PM defiant as Lisbon campaign launched

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said today he did not contemplate a defeat of the European Union's reform treaty in October's plebiscite, skirting questions on whether his government would survive a "No" vote.

Cowen launched his campaign for a "Yes" in the referendum, focusing on Europe as a safe haven during recession -- a view which is widespread in Ireland, according to the European Commission's latest Eurobarometer survey published today.

But voter dissatisfaction over how Cowen is handling the recession has some analysts worried there could be a protest vote against his administration on Oct. 2 making a "Yes" result more difficult than recent surveys suggest.

Last year, Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty, designed to streamline EU decision-making. After winning concessions on key policy areas including neutrality, abortion and retaining an Irish EU commissioner, surveys suggest a majority of people are in favour.

Asked if he would resign if Ireland voted "No" again, Cowen said: "No. I don't contemplate defeat."

Pressed further on whether his political survival was on the line, Cowen said: "It's not about me, ... the survival of the country ... that's what the treaty is about. Political comings and goings, that's something we deal with every other day."

Bookmaker Paddy Power said gamblers were increasingly betting on a "Yes" vote and cut the odds on a successful passage of the charter to 1/10 from 1/7.

The treaty, which is designed to give the EU a greater voice in world affairs, cannot take effect until it is ratified by all 27 members. The presidents of Poland and the Czech Republic have said they will wait for an Irish "Yes" before they approve it.

Yesterday, Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin said feedback his party had received showed voters were increasingly supportive of the treaty but that trend was still fragile and could turn around.

The Eurobarometer poll did not support Dublin's claim however that there was a high level of understanding of the Lisbon treaty among Irish voters, who cited lack of information as a key reason for rejecting it in 2008.

Only 40 percent of respondents said they understood how the EU worked, putting Ireland close to the bottom of the ranking of the 27 EU member states which all conducted the same survey.

"This suggests ... that the cognitive underpinnings of Irish attitudes to the EU may be weak, especially in the context of Ireland's commitment to holding referendums on EU treaty changes," the Commission said. The Commission said that participants whose understanding of the EU was weakest tended to have a more negative image of the union.