A strong President of the European Council?

If the Lisbon Treaty enters into force, and this depends on Ireland's referendum in October, two new important posts will be created - the President of the European Council, elected for a once renewable term of two-and-a-half years, and a High Representative for foreign policy.

The President will coordinate the work of the European Council (the heads of government of the member states), chair its meetings, provide continuity and give the EU more of an international profile. He will also have to work closely with the European Commission and European Parliament. Under the present system, the Council is chaired on a rotating basis by the country holding the six-month EU presidency. With the Lisbon Treaty this system will no longer exist.

The High Representative will combine the current functions of the Council's High Representative for Common and Foreign Security Policy and the European Commissioner for External Relations. He will chair the regular meetings of EU Foreign Ministers and will be Vice-President of the European Commission.

The European Council is a very powerful European institution which often drives the EU agenda and takes critical decisions, so the member states might want to appoint a political heavyweight as its president, such as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Not everyone, however, is convinced of this. Some observers believe having a heavyweight figure could potentially lead to an overlapping of roles with the President of the European Commission as well as the High Representative for foreign policy, and could lead to the creation of yet another centre of power in Brussels.

On the other hand, some analysts argue that the newly-created post of EU Council President would simply put a permanent face on the European Council as opposed to the six-month country presidency. It is true, though, that the EU will now effectively have two presidents as well as a more powerful foreign policy chief and this could lead to all three getting into each other's way. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had once asked: "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?" This question is still valid today.

The EU Council President, of course, will be as powerful as the member states allow him to be. Does the EU want the post to come with real power or does it prefer to have a sort of 'chairman of the board' whose main role would be to forge a consensus among the different members? In the latter case, somebody like Luxembourg's Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, would be the ideal candidate.

Although Blair seems to be the leading candidate for the post of EU Council President - he is the most high-profile of the possible candidates mentioned so far - his appointment is in no way guaranteed. Furthermore, there is plenty of opposition throughout the EU to Blair being given this top post. There even exists a 'Stop Blair' online petition which is gathering signatures against his nomination.

So far, Britain has publicly backed Blair's nomination - even though he is not yet an official candidate - but many politicians and activists throughout the EU, especially those on the left - even though Blair comes from the centre-left (although certainly more centre than left) are opposing Blair's candidacy.

The main reasons for this opposition are Blair's support for the US-led war in Iraq which divided Europe, his perceived reluctance to bring the UK closer to the EU by, for example, refusing to adopt the single currency and his liberal economic policies.

No other EU country has publicly endorsed Blair and even though French President Nicolas Sarkozy hinted last year he would back him, observers say this support has now cooled. It is said that France is now considering supporting former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez for the post in a bid to improve Franco-Spanish relations. Other possible candidates include former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen and former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schussel.

Whatever one might think of Blair's suitability for President of the European Council, he certainly has more stature, international experience and charisma than the other candidates, and would almost certainly raise the profile of the EU internationally. However, the EU needs to decide exactly what type of President it wants.

Fredrick Reinfeldt, for example, Sweden's Prime Minister, whose country holds the EU presidency, says that small and medium sized member states are not keen on a particularly strong president. In fact he prefers to refer to this new post as a "council chairman" rather than president.

Then, of course, there is the question of the beefed-up High Representative for foreign policy post. Possible candidates for this post include Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt and European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

The question that remains to be answered is: who will really speak for the EU in foreign policy, the High Representative, who will have a large staff and budget as well as being Vice President of the European Commission? Or the European Council President? Only time will tell.