EU expansion and Iceland's 'short track'

Iceland's official application to join the EU last Monday - and the way in which it was welcomed by the member states - must have raised some eyebrows among the official EU candidate countries, namely Turkey, Croatia and Macedonia as well as the potential candidate countries - Albania, Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro.

The EU seems to be going through an enlargement fatigue and it cannot be said that negotiations with Turkey and Croatia are going particularly well. Negotiations with Macedonia haven't even started and nobody knows when the potential candidate countries will be declared to be candidate countries.

The international economic and financial crisis, the cost of further enlargement , the experience of Bulgaria's and Romania's accession, as well as the uncertainty related to the Lisbon Treaty have all contributed to the EU adopting a somewhat cautious approach to enlargement.

Furthermore, Croatia's EU bid is being held up by Slovenia over a border dispute while opposition to Turkey joining has unfortunately grown in countries such as France, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. Turkey's refusal to open its ports and airports to Greek-Cypriot traffic has stalled its EU negotiations even further.

Iceland's recent EU application, however, seems to have been genuinely welcomed by the member states, even though this also presents its own particular challenges. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said Iceland will undergo a quicker EU entry process because it already is a member of the bloc's single market as well as the Schengen group. He also said that Iceland will not be given a "fast track" towards membership but a "short track".

Indeed, Iceland's membership of the European Economic Area since 1994 means it already adheres to many EU laws and regulations, which makes EU entry so much easier compared to the other candidates. Some observers are predicting this could be the speediest entry in the history of the EU, perhaps taking about three or four years.

Iceland's EU application might actually be good news for Croatia, which so far has been the leading candidate to join within a reasonable timeframe, although a lot depends on how long it will take for the dispute with Slovenia to be resolved. A mini-enlargement of two countries - Iceland and Croatia - makes more sense than letting in one country, although this happened once before when Greece joined in 1981.

Although Bildt said last Monday after receiving Iceland's EU application that he hoped "to give new impetus to the European integration process in the western Balkans" most analysts are somewhat sceptical about this.

I believe some EU politicians (not Swedish) have been playing on people's fears about enlargement and adopting a somewhat populist attitude towards the expansion of the bloc. This is indeed unfortunate as EU enlargement has, on the whole, proved to be a success story and a catalyst for democracy, stability and prosperity which is exactly what the countries in the Balkans need.

Turkey's stalled EU bid is, I feel, particularly unfortunate, as its membership of the bloc will be beneficial for Europe and, of course, for Turkey. Ankara should reconsider its position on not giving Greek Cypriot traffic access to its ports and airports and France and Germany should remember the commitment the EU gave to Turkey when it decided to open accession negotiations with it.

Although Iceland's EU bid presents far fewer problems than other candidates, there are certainly some challenges. The main obstacle is the EU's common fisheries policy which would give EU member states access to Iceland's fish. The fisheries sector is a key pillar of the country's economy and the main reason why this Nordic country never previously considered joining the EU. Compromises will definitely have to be made by both sides if Iceland's EU bid is to move ahead.

The state of Iceland's economy is also an issue - the country suffered tremendously as a result of the international financial crisis - and its deficit is now 13 per cent of GDP, while its debt is over 100 per cent of GDP. It will take a while before Iceland will be allowed to adopt the euro, but this should not prevent it from joining the EU - the adoption of the single currency will follow after, at a time to be determined by Iceland and the EU.

Finally, Iceland's EU membership will have to be approved by a popular referendum and a 'yes' vote cannot be taken for granted. Opposition to joining the bloc remains strong - even the junior partner in the governing centre-left coalition is against - and Parliament only very narrowly voted for the country to formally apply for membership.

An intense EU debate will now likely take place in Iceland - similar to what we experienced in Malta - and one hopes that the electorate will, like us, make the right choice. The effect of the global financial crisis on Iceland's economy should convince the electorate of the need to join the EU, which guarantees a degree of stability and, as we are aware in Malta, lessened the impact of the crisis on its member states.