Sweden's crucial EU presidency

Sweden's European Union presidency, which began on July 1, is expected to concentrate substantially on getting a global deal on climate change at the December Copenhagen conference and on helping Europe get out of its worst recession since the 1930s.

The presidency's focus, however, could well be affected by the EU's internal politics, namely Jose Manuel Barroso's bid to be re-appointed European Commission President, the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and the choice of the bloc's first-ever President who will replace the EU's present rotating presidency.

Sweden is hoping that such events and appointments will go smoothly, namely that the European Parliament will soon give its approval of Mr Barroso's nomination, that the Lisbon Treaty will be approved by Irish voters in October and that subsequently EU leaders will not drag their feet over a choice of an EU President.

Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has already expressed some concern should things not go according to plan. "I see a risk of not being engaged in leadership on climate change and economic recovery, and instead of being inward-looking, talking about names and having a lack of leadership for quite some time. That's not what voters want," he told the media last week.

Should the Irish approve the Lisbon Treaty Mr Reinfeldt will have another task - to convince Czech President Vaclav Klaus and Polish President Lech Kaczynski - both eurosceptics - to sign the treaty so that it will take effect next year. In the event of a thumbs up from Dublin Sweden has planned an October summit which will choose the EU President - a post created by the Lisbon Treaty, and a new foreign policy high representative who under the new treaty will have a greater responsibility than the present incumbent.

Sweden's impeccable environmental credentials make it an ideal country to forge a global consensus over climate change at December's Copenhagen conference. Mr Reinfeldt will do his best for the EU to reach a common position before the summit so that he will then be able to convince the US and China to agree to major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in December.

The Prime Minister said recently: "Climate change is happening. It's coming quicker and earlier than we thought and our way of living is just not sustainable. We need to alter the direction, we need to take down our dependency on fossil fuel and we need an answer this autumn."

The way Sweden has tackled climate change could be a model for other countries. Its economy has grown by 50 per cent over the last 20 years and it has imposed the world's highest carbon tax on fossil fuels for industry, households and transport. However, high taxes in times of recession are not exactly advisable, so there could be a problem here.

Sweden understandably intends to make tackling the economic and financial situation in Europe the highest priority of its presidency. "Our first economic objective will be to manage the EU's efforts to combat the downturn," Mr Reinfeldt wrote recently in an article in the Financial Times. The presidency, he said, will attempt to restore the functioning of, and confidence in, financial markets, and to counter the negative impact on employment and growth.

Mr Reinfeldt has also made it clear that there is a need to halt and reverse the rise in EU budget deficits and debt, something which could cause him to clash with countries like France which believe that the current economic scenario makes such public finances acceptable. He said: "We are concerned that budgetary discipline was not observed in the good times; the results are clear now. Budgetary discipline and sound public finances are essential to foster economic growth. We need to formulate a strategy on how member states can start to reverse their large deficits, in line with the stability and growth pact."

The Swedish presidency is also expected to push for a revitalised strategy for growth and full employment by among others promoting investment in human capital and research, and further improving the environment for business and innovation.

Other challenges for the Swedish EU presidency include possible fresh tensions with Iran in the aftermath of the country's presidential election, how to deal with an unpredictable Russia, what to do should the Irish again reject the Lisbon Treaty and keeping the EU's enlargement process on track.

The Swedish government has said it also intends to pursue the development of the so-called "Stockholm Programme" - the next five-year plan for EU cooperation on justice and home affairs, and to adopt an EU strategy for the Baltic Sea region. Unfortunately for Malta, immigration does not seem to feature prominently on the Swedish EU presidency agenda.

Of course, the presidency will also have to expect the unexpected. As Prime Minister Reinfeldt said: "Dealing with unforeseen events is often what distinguishes a presidency."

Should the Lisbon Treaty take effect next year, this Swedish EU presidency will be the last in a system of six month rotating presidencies, as the EU will, from January, have a permanent President for a two-and-a-half year term. All the more reason for Sweden to make this presidency a very successful one.