Poll shows recession over for now

The recession in Britain is over for now, a slim majority of economists said in a poll published by the Financial Times yesterday.

The newspaper said 11 of 20 economists surveyed believed the economy had stopped contracting this month and was likely to start growing in coming months, while those who said the economy was still shrinking thought the bottom of the downturn was near.

The survey suggests the government's forecast that growth would return by the fourth quarter may have been too pessimistic, and it may resume sooner, the newspaper said.

Chancellor Alastair Darling said at the time of last month's budget that he expected recovery by the end of this year, with 1.25 per cent growth slated for next year.

The FT cited Morgan Stanley economist Melanie Baker saying: "Our central forecast is for a (small) positive GDP growth number in the second quarter already."

JP Morgan's Malcolm Barr saw "a transition into modest positive growth as the data move into the third quarter".