EP survey sees PL winning half the votes on Saturday
The Labour Party will see its support rise by 1.6 percent and will win half the votes in the European Parliament election on Saturday, according to a European Parliament election forecast.
The election prediction model by international communications consultancy firm Burson-Marsteller shows the PL at 50% of the vote, up from 48.4 percent in the 2004 poll.
The Nationalist Party is at 38 percent, down 1.8 percent from 2004.
The PL will retain its three EP seats and the PN will retain its two.
AD are predicted to win 6.4 percent of the vote, down three points from last time, while Azzjoni Nazzjonali will win 4.9 percent.
The same survey in April had seen the Labour Party at 51 percent.
The predictions are based on a scientific model developed by researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Dublin's Trinity College.
The model factors in the share of votes won by each national party in all the previous EP elections since 1979 and opinion polls modified by information about vote shares in the previous national election. It also takes into consideration whether a party is in government, whether a national party is anti-European and whether the European election is held within a year of a previous national election.
|
Party |
Abbr. |
Votes 2004 |
Predicted |
Change |
MEPs 2004 |
Predicted |
Change |
|
Partit Laburista |
PL |
48.4 |
50.0 |
1.6 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
|
Partit Nazzjonalista |
PN |
39.8 |
38.0 |
-1.8 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
Alternattiva Demokratika |
AD |
9.4 |
6.4 |
-3.0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Azzjoni Nazzjonali |
AN |
4.9 |
4.9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Total |
5 |
5 |
|||||
18 Comments
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mark fabri
Jun 4th 2009, 17:59
Austin Gatt liability for PN as was Alfred Sant for MLP
Joe Galea
Jun 4th 2009, 16:00
I hope this is true, but this is achieved if everyone goes to vote and votes for all the PL candidates.
The PL should seek every vote till the end.
Yes labour will still be in opposition but it will be the start of a new beginning towards a sure Labour win next elections. This time PL doesn't have Alfred Sant to help the PN to be elected.
C. Sapiano
Jun 4th 2009, 15:29
@Carmel Attard
Celebrations or not, Labour will still be in opposition. Thanks to the EU you have invented an excuse to celebrate because you never win the real thing
Jason Borg
Jun 4th 2009, 14:32
Much ado about nothing! I look forward to the end of this comedy.
Carmel Attard
Jun 4th 2009, 14:25
Do not be complacent. Continue working until the end of the MEP elections. Do not take any notice of these surveys although they are encouraging. Votes have to be counted to know the exact outcome of these elections. Hence get out the vote first and then Labour can celebrate on Monday. The country desperately wants to show this arrogant Government that Labour has regained the majority.
Luke Mizzi
Jun 4th 2009, 14:23
Malta will gain the sixth seat in October if the Irish, Czechs and Poles approve the Treaty of Lisbon. So voters should keep that in mind when voting on Saturday .
C. Sapiano
Jun 4th 2009, 14:22
@Alan Bugeja
You are a typical labourite. You always celebrate beforehand. You forgot that Labour has been in opposition for so many years and probably will remain so. Your comment will convince many nationalists to go out and vote.
louis Zammit
Jun 4th 2009, 14:08
last ELECTIONS all the surveys looked that it would be a Labour VICTORY and we got a GONZI PN in goverment.......i think surveys are there more to mobilize people to go out and VOTE... and yes all nationalist people hate the idea THAT sunday all the people in the streest are shouting VIVA IL LABOUR VIVA IL LABOUR...i ask why ?? why we hate that so much maybe MUSCAT can tell us why???well if u happen to hear super 1or one tv u will quickly decide to whom u will vote...... cos pn did NOTHING GOOD ..ha ha
but than of course lp has never done anything bad cos they are always TOO LATE.....
so come on and go and vote..
Gladys Borg
Jun 4th 2009, 13:46
@ Alan Bugeja
You are probably right . . however your leader will most definitely make a mess of things and we will win again after 5 years !!
You deserve some celebration after 25 years unlucky for you it won't last
Alan Bugeja
Jun 4th 2009, 13:10
This is only the beginning. In less than 4 years time, we will celebrate bil KBIR...
Saturday will mean that GonziPN has lost the confidence of all Maltese.
Martin Montebello
Jun 4th 2009, 13:06
What Paul Abela said below hits the nail on the head. There's no certainty the PN gets 2 seats even if it gets the 38% predicted. The Nationalists are really in for a drubbing in this election. If they get 38%, it would be the PN's lowest percentage in elections since the 1950s. And if they elect just one seat in this election, as seems possible even with the percentage predicted (which is not, of course gospel truth and can be even lower) - it would really have been a debacle of the first order for the PN.
charles zammit
Jun 4th 2009, 12:55
while all indications are leading to a labour victory, we should remain vigilant till the very end that is saturday 10,00pm and persuade every available voter to vote labour.
J. Borg
Jun 4th 2009, 12:43
The survey does not seem to take into consideration, the effect of "cross-party" voting
After all we're electing individuals to participate in the EP, not the PL or PN.
In this regard, voters should use their vote wisely, and give their sequential preference to those individuals who have credibility, commitment, and consistency, and possibly most importantly those who can exert the greater influence on other MEPs and within the EU institutions.
The individuals with such qualities are not the monopoly of any one party - and personally I definitely see Arnold Cassola, Simon Busuttil and Louis Grech as excellent choices - notwithstanding one's own local political opinions - and sincerely hope that the three of them will be given top preferences in most votes.
Moreover having Arnold Cassola direct lobbying within the Greens' Group in the EP will definitely increase the support that Malta can garner on issues that are very relevant to us.
Paul Abela
Jun 4th 2009, 12:16
With only 38% for the PN, I cannot understand how this model is predicting 2 seats for the Nationalists.
In these elections, the first count is not that important and transfers are much more important.
Last time, if the AD candidate had had a few votes less, he would have been eliminated and the PN could have elected 3, even if it had only 40% of the first count vote.
This time round, it can be the other way round. Transfers from the PN (Simon Busuttil) to AD could result in a 3 PL - 1 PN - 1 AD seat allocation.
Our electoral system is complex and I believe this model is not taking transfers into account.
stephen farrugia
Jun 4th 2009, 12:13
This survey is wrong. Look at the people who did the survey. Google the name.
DUSTY WILLIAMS
Jun 4th 2009, 12:03
DIN XI MIND GAME OHRA
F Chircop
Jun 4th 2009, 11:55
Not credible. AN 4.9? You wish. AD 6.4? Impossible. This is not a scientific opinion poll, it is based on some statistical calculation that factors in results of previous elections and if a party is in opposition or in government.
Bertie O'Cassey
Jun 4th 2009, 11:52
let's all get ready to wake up to "VIVA L-LABOUR VIVA L-LABOUR HEY HEY!!!!!!!!" oh how my head aches already.
what about the sixth seat?