North Korea's nuclear defiance

North Korea's Hiroshima-sized underground nuclear test last Monday, accompanied by three missile tests, is a blatant defiance by the Stalinist country of its international obligations and represents a dangerous escalation of the situation on the Korea peninsula.

Hours after the UN Security Council unanimously condemned the nuclear test, North Korea fired two more short-range missiles off an east coast base. The day after, Pyongyang declared that it had abandoned the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953.

A peace treaty has never been signed by the two Koreas, which remain technically at war, so the potential for another conflict has always been there.

North Korea has linked its behaviour to South Korea's decision to join a US-led initiative, called the Proliferation Security Initiative, to search ships for nuclear weapons, calling it a 'declaration of war'. However, the PSI is largely symbolic and allows for improved intelligence-sharing - it does not allow South Korea to search ships or ground planes outside its sovereign territory.

In reality, North Korea has been acting irresponsibly all year. In January it scrapped all military and political deals with South Korea, accusing it of "hostile intent". Last month it launched a controversial rocket over Japanese territory considered by many as a cover for a long-range missile test.

Soon after, Pyongyang ended talks on its nuclear activities after rejecting UN criticism of its rocket launch. It then threatened to carry out a nuclear test - which it did last Monday - the second in three years - unless the UN apologised for such criticism. It also re-opened its main nuclear plant at Yongbyon, which was closed in June 2007 as part of a disarmament deal.

It is not exactly clear why North Korea has chosen to act the way it did. Surely it knew that its nuclear test and missile launches would be condemned by the Security Council, which would most likely impose additional sanctions? However, the truth is that past UN resolutions have been nothing but condemnations and UN sanctions have been unable to stop the country from pursuing its nuclear programme.

Analysts say North Korea's actions could be linked to a number of factors, namely strengthening dictator Kim Jong-il's grip on power and paving the way for his successor after suffering a stroke last year, challenging the new American President, Barack Obama, as well as the new conservative government in South Korea, and reminding the international community that North Korea is a nuclear power that deserves respect.

"They cannot become a mighty nation through their economy or through conventional troops, so the nuclear programme would be their only way," South Korea's chief nuclear negotiator, Wi Sung-lac said recently.

It seems that the Security Council, as well as Japan and South Korea, have agreed in principle that North Korea must face sanctions, but just how far will Russia and China, its traditional allies, want to go? Possible action could include a ban on importing and exporting all arms and not just heavy weapons, the freezing of North Korean assets, travel bans for North Korean officials and placing more firms on a UN blacklist.

Such measures would be in addition to sanctions imposed after North Korea's 2006 nuclear test, which included a military and technological materials embargo, a ban on luxury goods as well as financial sanctions.

In actual fact, the international community's options are very limited when it comes to dealing with North Korea. Existing sanctions, which have not even been enforced by all countries, have had little impact on the regime's nuclear programme.

Although the country is impoverished and relies on aid to feed its 23 million people, it spends 25 per cent of its GDP on its military, which has one the world's largest standing armies of close to one million soldiers. It is questionable whether additional sanctions would achieve anything in this present crisis.

One country that can make a difference is China, which provides North Korea with much needed aid. Dennis Wilder, Asia expert at the Brookings Institution, who was top advisor to President Bush, said recently that China was crucial in applying pressure on North Korea. "The US, South Korea and Japan should press China to live up to the sanctions on North Korea that were called for after the 2006 nuclear test," he said.

Shi Yinhong, an expert on regional security at Renmin University in Beijing said: "Undoubtedly, China also wants a swift and united response, but it probably won't give the United States all it wants. China has its own worries." These include a possible collapse of the North Korean state with millions of refugees fleeing across the border into China. Furthermore, it is very doubtful if China would want to see a united pro-American Korea in its borders.

The latest crisis is a huge challenge for Obama, who has pledged to defend both South Korea and Japan from any North Korean attack. It may be a few years before Pyongyang can develop a nuclear warhead small enough for a ballistic missile, but the world has certainly entered a dangerous new phase.