Labour has a 10 point lead over the Nationalist Party, according to a poll commissioned by The Sunday Times ahead of Saturday's European Parliament election, though 15 per cent of respondents said they do not yet know how they are going to vote.

The poll, conducted by EMCS, shows that Labour would gain 44.7 per cent of the vote while the PN trail on 35 per cent. These figures were derived after removing from the equation the 'don't knows' and those who failed to give an answer.

From the survey it is not possible to analyse how the 'don't knows' are likely to vote. However, the share of both major parties will increase once they make up their minds.

Simon Busuttil is expected to be the runaway winner overall on the Nationalist Party ticket. The PN candidate closest to him is David Casa, while Roberta Metsola Tedesco Triccas and Vince Farrugia battle it out for third.

The contest among Labour candidates is much tighter, with John Attard Montalto and Edward Scicluna leading the way, followed by Marlene Mizzi and Louis Grech.

The survey shows that 16.2 per cent of eligible voters do not intend to visit the polling stations on Saturday.

The survey was conducted over the telephone between May 11 and 25. Over 1,250 calls were made to a randomly selected pool of people from telephone directories and 782 agreed to take part.

With 'don't knows' included in the equation, 37.8 per cent said they intended voting for Labour candidates, while 29.6 per cent said they would vote for PN candidates.

Just 0.25 per cent said they intended voting for Alternattiva Demokratika candidates - the Green Party had obtained 9.3 per cent of the vote in the 2004 election. The other parties are expected to get 0.6 per cent of the votes.

The survey has a margin of error of 3.5 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence level. Responses were weighted so as to reflect the demographics of those eligible to vote.

The survey also probed the respondents' voting decisions in the March 2008 general election. This provides an interesting indication of shifts in votes between political parties.

Just over 71.7 per cent of those who voted PN in the March 2008 election will reconfirm their first preference for a Nationalist candidate.

Nearly 11.6 per cent of those who voted PN in last year's election do not intend to vote for any party, and 10.7 per cent said they did not know which party to vote for in Saturday's EP election.

Just over five per cent intend casting their vote for a Labour candidate; 0.4 per cent said they will vote for Alternattiva and 0.3 per cent for other parties.

On the other hand, it is clear that more Labour supporters intend to reaffirm their allegiance to the party.

Nearly 89.5 per cent said they will vote for PL candidates. Just under 4.4 per cent said they do not intend to vote and over 6.1 per cent said they do not know.

None of those polled who voted PL in the last general election will vote for a PN candidate this year.

In a surprise move, the Nationalist Party placed an advert in this newspaper today predicting an abysmal result for the PN.

"Our polls tell us that the way things stand today, Nationalist EP candidates will struggle for a second seat, and that if a sixth seat were available to Malta, then anti-EU or eurosceptic candidates would get four seats and pro-EU Nationalists would get only two," the advert warns, before stating that significant numbers of pro-EU electors plan not to cast their vote.

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