Kurt Sansone
Labour maintains healthy lead in EU election poll
The Labour Party continues to enjoy a healthy lead at the polls according to the European Parliament election forecast even if its share of the vote has dropped over the past two weeks.
Since the launch of the election prediction model by international communications consultancy firm Burson-Marsteller on April 7, the Labour Party (PL) has seen its margin of the vote increase from 50.6 per cent to 51 per cent. However, two weeks ago, the PL share stood at 53 per cent.
Since April, the Nationalist Party's share dropped from 45 per cent to 38 per cent.
The latest prediction results published yesterday give Alternattiva Demokratika 6.3 per cent and Azzjoni Nazzjonali 4.7 per cent.
The survey predicts the PL will get three seats against the PN's two. The next survey will be published on June 4.
The survey authors corrected an initial flaw in the statistical model, which did not cater for the potential votes that may be garnered by AN, which is poised to cash in on the prevailing anti-immigrant sentiment.
The predictions are based on a scientific model developed by researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Dublin's Trinity College.
According to Simon Hix, from the London School of Economics, the main change in the predictions over the last two weeks - the rise in support for AD and AN - resulted from some changes made to the statistical model, which boosted the support for small parties that are not in government.
The model factors in the share of votes won by each national party in all the previous EP elections since 1979 and opinion polls modified by information about vote shares in the previous national election. It also takes into consideration whether a party is in government, whether a national party is anti-European and whether the European election is held within a year of a previous national election.
In the first European Parliament election for Malta held five years ago, the PL obtained a relative majority of 48.4 per cent with the PN trailing behind at 39.8 per cent. AD had its best ever showing in a nation-wide election when it obtained almost 10 per cent of the vote.
The model provides poll predictions for all the 27 EU member states and shows that the conservative bloc in the EU Parliament, the European Peoples Party, is set to retain its standing as the largest grouping albeit with a reduced number of seats.
The Socialist group will be the second largest group.
The authors of the report said that, according to their predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso stood a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President if the Liberals (ALDE) would support an EPP-Conservative coalition to re-elect the former Portuguese Prime Minister. However, this was not a foregone conclusion.
"An alternative progressive coalition of Liberals, Socialists, Greens and Radical Left MEPs could still block the re-election of Mr Barroso," the report authors said.
The next European Parliament will be composed of 736 MEPs as opposed to the 785 in the outgoing Parliament.
Malta will elect five seats on June 6 and will have a sixth seat if and when the Lisbon Treaty is approved by the Irish in a referendum to be held later this year.
9 Comments
Post comment
Please sign in or create your Account to post comments.
Joseph Carmel Chetcuti
Jun 2nd 2009, 10:25
Favourable polls are not always a good sign. Any political scientist will tell you that a favourable poll often spells disaster as some swinging voters will turn to the underdog. Certainly in Australia, most politicians fight hard to maintain the underdog status. I think that is what actaully happened at Malta's last elections when many people saw a PL victory as a foregone conclusion. As they often say, the poll that really counts is the last one, that is when electors actually vote. To drop another cliche, a week is a long time in politics especially when parties are in election mode. I see great danger in any party presenting itself as the winner. Even so, I hope the more liberal elements win on the day and gay men and lesbians in Malta win the dignity (and not just promises) they deserve.
Joseph Carmel Chetcuti
victor zarb
May 28th 2009, 01:16
i think this survey makes sense! I mean, lets face it,now the majority of the maltese people are TIRED of the nationalist party,promises,promises and more promises!
PL is going to get the majority,because the people are going to send a message to this outdated government,apart from those who really believe labour can do more for us in eu
parliament as in fact it undoubtly did! So lets grow up and need the feel for change! Its healthy you know!
C. Borg
May 23rd 2009, 10:12
The usual maltese attitude towards politics, treating an election like a sport between 2 teams.
These MEP elections should be more about the candidate and less about the party.
Haven't we learnt anything during the last 5 years??
charles zammit
May 22nd 2009, 23:10
in spite of the favourable polls showing those voting for labour should not feel overconfident. we should go and do our duty to the country and to the party come election day. one more thing... if the difference in vote is telling then be it 5 or 6 seats that malta wil be allotted the party who obtains the majority of votes should have the majority of those seats...anything else is cheating
G.Schembri
May 22nd 2009, 22:48
Do these polls take into consideration the people coming to vote from abroad?
Michael Neville Cassar
May 22nd 2009, 18:04
I am sure that there are minds made up as to how he or she is going to vote The poll as monitored is guess work . ON WHAT on one's Minds?????? Let us not give in to unreality.
N.Calleja
May 22nd 2009, 12:53
How daft can this article can be. The journalist seems to have forgotten last year's general election's predictions and opinion polls! How sure the PL were of winning the government. Up to a few hours before the official results were published the Laburisti were out in the streets celebrating! And then the majority went the other way! Remember Jason Micallef not believing his eyes that Labour had lost again! When are these opinion polls going to be scraped. In Malta they don't mean a thing
Josephine Cassar
May 22nd 2009, 12:08
PL continues to lead but has lost in the polls as well, like the PN- the party in govt- and a year after elections which is a crucial time. The small parties gained a bit from both so electorate does not trust either-bad luck to PL then as it is understandable that PN is not leading but mud-slinging, nuru s-snien, knives, half-clips ecc are having their undesired effect. Bidu gdid!
DUSTY WILLIAMS
May 22nd 2009, 10:16
DAQT NIBDEW NAGHMLU L-POOLS FUQ DAWN UKOLL.
JIENA NEMMEN META NARA R-RIZULTAT FINALI GHAX HAWN MALTA IN-NIES IDURU IZJED MINN PINNUR TA FUQ IL-BEJT.