Georgia's political stalemate could end in violence

The risk of violence is rising in Georgia after a month of political deadlock between a president determined to cling to power and an opposition which lacks the numbers and unity to unseat him.

President Mikheil Saakashvili, re-elected in January 2008 amid opposition allegations of fraud, has so far resisted demands to quit over his record on democracy and last year's disastrous war with Russia.

The US and Russia, each for its own strategic reasons, are watching out for instability in the potentially volatile region. Georgia is a major conduit for the transit of Caspian gas and oil to Western markets.

Violence has already flared once at an evening protest in Tbilisi and analysts say Mr Saakashvili must address opposition grievances if the political stalemate is to end peacefully, without mass unrest or a heavy police crackdown. "The dilemma of this situation is that, on the one hand it is a continued and serious challenge that cannot be ignored," said Svante Cornell, research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

"But on the other hand, it's not a challenge of the magnitude that would risk unseating the government, and therefore you have deadlock."

A brief, bloodless mutiny at a tank base last week also cast doubt over the loyalty of the military.

Georgia's army was humiliated last August when it tried to re-conquer the breakaway region of South Ossetia, prompting a massive Russian counter-attack which crushed it in five days.

Georgia was racked by civil war in the 1990s when opposition forces formed militia to overthrow President Zviad Gamsakhurdia. They accused him of suppressing all dissent after leading the country to independence from the Soviet Union.

Fighting raged for weeks in the centre of Tbilisi and spread through the country after Mr Gamsakhurdia broke out of his Parliament building and fled the capital with supporters.

Current protests are testing the patience of the police, who dispersed mass demonstrations against Mr Saakashvili in 2007 with rubber bullets, beatings and tear gas and closed an opposition TV station at gunpoint, angering Georgia's Western backers.

He is wary of a repeat, particularly with Nato conducting month-long military exercises at an air base 25 km from the capital - "a clear signal of support to the ruling regime," Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Sunday.

Neighbouring big power Russia has long loathed Mr Saakashvili and is hoping that the opposition movement will finally unseat him. The Georgian government constantly alleges Moscow-backed plots against Mr Saakashvili but Russia denies any involvement.