World better equipped to face swine flu thanks to H5N1 scare

The action governments took when the world was gripped by the bird flu scare will be invaluable to combat the threat of swine flu, according to London-based virologist John Oxford.

"H5N1 (avian influenza) could have been a blessing in disguise," he said. Had the world not taken the threat of H5N1 bird flu seriously, it would not have had the current level of preparedness that would help it cope if swine flu became a full-blown pandemic.

"Because of our interest in H5N1, manufacturing companies today have the production capacity to make very large quantities of vaccines, something that was not possible five years ago," the professor of virology at Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry said.

However, a vaccine against the new influenza strain that has already killed more than 150 people in Mexico and another in the US, will not be available before a few months, making antivirals a precious way of defence.

"Because of the interest governments took in H5N1, stocks of antiviral drugs have been raised to satisfying levels. This is another level of defence and may well be the main one since that's all that's available now," he told an international conference on Influenza Vaccines For The World, held in Cannes.

Swine flu has been responsive to two antivirals: Tamiflu and Relenza. When taken within 48 hours from the onset of symptoms, the prescription drugs shorten the period of illness, reduce the severity of the symptoms and could lead to a reduction in complications.

The Maltese government had stocked 100,000 doses of antivirals in line with World Health Organisation recommendations when the threat of avian influenza loomed.

"At the moment it looks good but it can change quite rapidly. I'm still optimistic because of all the preparedness," Prof. Oxford said.

Swine flu crept in stealthily as the world was focusing on avian influenza: "We were all looking towards South East Asia and at birds, forgetting that pigs could also spread influenza to humans. We certainly did not look towards Mexico. To that extent, we might have over-focused on avian flu. You can always be clever afterwards."

He warned that the threat from bird flu was still not over. There was even the risk that swine flu moved to South East Asia, infected someone who was already infected with H5N1 and developed a virus containing a mixture of the two strains. This could pose a much bigger threat since nobody had any immunity to H5N1.

On the other hand, there was a "fairly distant" possibility of some immunity to swine flu since the last influenza jab included the human variant of H1N1.

"The single crucial experiment, which is being carried out, is to test people who took the vaccine and check whether their immunity stretches across to swine flu. There is a possibility, although fairly distant, that people who took the vaccine this year have some level of immunity," he said.

Prof. Oxford said the fact that summer was approaching in the northern hemisphere would help because influenza viruses tended to move more easily within the community in winter time. However, he pointed out, there were risks for the southern hemisphere, which were entering into winter. There were even more dangers for developing countries, which might be unprepared and unequipped to deal with a pandemic. Prof. Oxford said masks, which were being handed out in Mexico in a bid to stem the virus, did not have much effect. "You do not catch influenza just by walking in the street but through quite close contact," he explained.