New Zealand will better its target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol because of drought and reassessment of its forests, according to a government report. The country is now expected to produce around 9.6 million tons less of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases than allowed in the protocol's first commitment period of 2008-2012.
Under the protocol, the UN main weapon in the fight against climate change, New Zealand is meant to show no increase from 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.
That compared with an estimate last year that New Zealand would have a greenhouse gas deficit of around 21.7 million tons.
"It is good news that we may exceed our Kyoto target but we need to be cautious of these projections, given their volatility," Climate Change Minister Nick Smith said in a statement.
The surplus would be worth €106 million against last year's liability of €238 million. The costs were based on a price of €11 a ton of carbon set by the Treasury.
The data are a net estimate of how much New Zealand would exceed or fall short of its Kyoto target, balancing emissions against offsets such as carbon-absorbing forests.
The turnaround was put down to drought in 2007-08 cutting animal emissions, forests absorbing more carbon pollution and more accurate data on nitrous oxide emissions.
Around half of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. Methane and nitrous oxide, produced during agricultural production, are powerful greenhouse gases.
The recession, though, had resulted in only a small reduction in national energy, transport and industrial emissions.
"These figures do not signal any progress in abating New Zealand's gross greenhouse gas emissions, which are 23 per cent above 1990 levels," Smith said.
"We are just fortunate that more than 600,000 hectares of new forests were planted in the 1990s that are growing strongly and offsetting our continued growth in energy and transport emissions."
New Zealand's emissions trading scheme, brought in by the previous Labour-led government last year, is currently being reviewed by the new National-led administration.
A revised scheme is expected to be unveiled later in the year and launched next year, although the scheme is already going ahead for the forestry sector. Pollution permits will be released to forestry owners in coming months for the 2008 compliance period.