A nuclear-free world?

We will probably never live in a nuclear-free world, but that does not mean that the international community should not work towards nuclear disarmament and the halting of the spread of nuclear weapons.

US President Barack Obama's recent pledge to work towards a world without nuclear weapons, which he made during his visit to Prague, is a huge challenge, but one that nevertheless deserves to be pursued, as long as it is accompanied by a severe dose of realism and rules binding on everyone.

Obama's nuclear pledge came just hours after North Korea launched a long-range missile - capable of carrying a nuclear warhead - in violation of a UN resolution banning such missile tests. The UN Security Council later condemned the missile launch and demanded that the country "not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile," following its claims to have conducted a nuclear test in October 2006.

However, the UN's somewhat subdued response to the North Korean missile launch highlights just how difficult it is to enforce rules and to punish violations when it comes to nuclear proliferation. The same, of course, can be said of Iran's nuclear programme which the international community believes is a cover to build atomic weapons. Iran has continued to enrich uranium despite the imposition of sanctions by the UN Security Council.

Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation is governed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, an international landmark treaty which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, promote co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament. The NPT, which has 188 signatories, including the official nuclear powers (US, UK, Russia, China and France) represents the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty to the goal of disarmament by the nuclear-weapon states.

Only four countries are not parties to the treaty: India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. India, Pakistan and North Korea have openly tested and possess nuclear weapons. Israel also possesses nuclear weapons, but does not officially admit it. North Korea had signed up to the NPT but withdrew in 2003 after violating it. Iran is still a member of the NPT, and its nuclear programme - if this does lead to the development of nuclear weapons as the global community suspects - would be a clear violation of its treaty obligations.

The spread of nuclear weapons is in nobody's interest and the biggest threat today comes from the possession of such weapons by rogue states such as North Korea and Iran or by terrorist organisations - by far the worst nightmare scenario. While deterrence could be used to prevent countries like North Korea or Iran from using nuclear weapons - they know that a first strike would result in a massive nuclear response - against which country would such a response be launched in the event of a nuclear attack by a terrorist organisation?

One also has to acknowledge that nuclear weapons did manage to keep the peace during the Cold War when the US and the Soviet Union refrained from attacking each other through a deterrence known as MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). Yes, it was a somewhat risky situation having more than 70,000 nuclear warheads in the hands of the two superpowers, but war was prevented and the Soviet Union went broke in trying to keep up with America's nuclear build-up.

The Cold War is now thankfully over and Russia and the US have greatly reduced their nuclear arsenal - although they still have more than they need. It is therefore positive that at the London G20 summit Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that they intended to reach an agreement to reduce their nuclear warheads by December to a number much lower than what Presidents Bush and Putin had agreed to in 2002. Under that agreement, known as the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, deployed warheads are to be cut to between 1,700 and 2,200 on each side by 2012.

Obama also said in Prague that he would pass on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to the Senate for ratification, another positive step. This treaty bans all nuclear explosions in all environments, for military or civilian purposes. Thirty-two states still have to ratify it, including China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United States.

The US President is right to work towards a nuclear-free world even though this is going to be a very difficult goal to achieve. As long as countries like North Korea and Iran possess these weapons, however, the free world will never give up their nuclear deterrent, nor should they.

What about India, Pakistan, Israel, Russia, China, Britain and France? Are they willing to give up their nuclear weapons? What if nuclear-armed Pakistan falls into the hands of the Taliban? What happens then? Or if Iran passes on a 'dirty bomb' to Hizbollah? So the path to nuclear disarmament is a very complicated one indeed.