Deep divisions fuel Thailand's crisis

Years of crisis in Thailand, which saw fresh violence erupt in Bangkok, are underpinned by deep divisions in the nation which are unlikely to be healed by the current military crackdown.

Thailand's political drama has been cast as a colour-coded battle between the Red Shirts loyal to fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, and the Yellow Shirts who helped install current leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Both sides claim to stand for democracy - but both have used mass protests, blockades and appealed for the support of the army in their quest for control of Thailand where power has flip-flopped from side to side.

At the centre of the rift is Mr Thaksin, a charismatic billionaire who is loved by the rural and urban poor, and remains highly influential despite living in exile to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

Mr Thaksin, who revolutionised Thailand's musty political scene when he stormed to power in 2001, has his stronghold in the impoverished north and is represented by the Red Shirts who clashed with soldiers in Bangkok yesterday.

In the other corner is the powerful Bangkok-based elite from the palace, military and bureaucracy, ostensibly represented by the middle-class Yellow Shirts who loathe Mr Thaksin and side with Mr Abhisit's administration.

It is these deep rifts based on wealth, class, geography and the palace's loyalties that have triggered fears Thailand could be headed for a civil war.

"Both sides have both driven each other into a corner where everything is at stake and neither can afford to lose," said Michael Nelson, a visiting academic at Chulalongkorn University.

Mr Nelson said that the march of the Red Shirts from the countryside and into the glittering capital represented a political revolution that will not be quelled by military action.

"Upcountry people have had the role of obedient children, they have never been figured in as a genuine political force and this has changed tremendously in the past few years," he said.

"So even though you might resolve the events here in Bangkok, the deeper political structures emerging, and the tremendous experience the Reds have gained, will not go away."

British-born Mr Abhisit has only been in power since December, when a court turfed out the previous pro-Thaksin government, but like those before him, he has failed to come good on his promise to unite the country.

Thailand's fourth Prime Minister in the space of a year, analysts say Mr Abhisit's own personal fate matters less than the need to find a long-term solution that will restore peace once and for all.

Without it, tourists and foreign investors will increasingly be scared off, observers say, further hurting the Thai economy as it hurtles towards recession, which in turn would only result in more strife.

In the glare of the global media, the Red Shirts stormed the venue of an Asian summit in the beach town of Pattaya on Saturday, forcing a humiliating cancellation and the evacuation of visiting leaders - some by helicopter.

The trouble shifted to Bangkok on Sunday, as Mr Abhisit declared a state of emergency to disperse protesters who had regrouped there. The army took action overnight, clearing a key junction in clashes.

But the embattled premier is hamstrung as he attempts to close down the Red Shirt protests, facing charges of hypocrisy after the Yellow Shirts operated with impunity, even closing down Bangkok's airport for nine days last year.

Thailand's crisis flared in September 2006 when the yellow-clad movement helped trigger a bloodless coup that ousted Mr Thaksin, ushering in more than a year of military rule.

The elites were infuriated when Mr Thaksin's allies won nationwide elections in December 2007, and shortly after relaunched their protest campaign.