Ivan Camilleri, Brussels
Labour to win EP elections with three MEPs
The Labour Party looks set to recapture the majority of Maltese seats in the European Parliament in the June elections, according to an EU-wide election forecast.
The predictions show the Labour Party (PL) will again elect three MEPs, the Nationalist Party will retain its current two seats but Alternattiva Demokratika will not manage a repeat of its good showing five years ago and would suffer a drastic loss of votes.
The forecast, published in Brussels yesterday by Burson-Marsteller, a leading global public relations and communications consultancy, is based on a scientific model developed by researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Dublin's Trinity College.
The model factors in the share of votes won by each national party in all the previous EP elections since 1979 and opinion polls modified by information about vote shares in the previous national election. It also takes into consideration whether a party is in government, whether a national party is anti-European and whether the European election is held within a year of a previous national election.
According to the resulting forecast, next June, Labour will manage to secure 50.6 per cent of the votes and elect three MEPs, gaining 2.2 per cent over 2004 when it obtained a relative majority of 48.4 per cent.
The PN will win 5.2 per cent more votes than in 2004, pushing its share up to 45 per cent from 39.8 per cent and retain two MEPs.
The big loser will be AD, which will not only fail to elect an MEP but see its share of the vote slashed by more than half, according to the study. After posting its best ever performance in a national election by winning 10 per cent of the vote in 2004, particularly at the PN's expense, its share is predicted to shrink to 4.4 per cent in June.
On an EU level, the study predicts a status quo, with the EPP group, in which the PN is affiliated, retaining the majority in the Brussels chamber followed by the Socialists.
The forecast is that the EPP will win about 249 seats, with its share of seats down from 37 to 33 per cent of MEPs, while the Socialist PSE group will win about 209 seats, representing a slight increase from 27 to 29 per cent of MEPs.
The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe looks set to secure about 87 seats and the new European Conservative group, composed of British Conservatives and their allies, is predicted to be the fourth largest group, with about 58 seats.
Roughly the same number of anti-European and extreme right MEPs (about 45 in total) will occupy seats in the new Parliament, according to the study.
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E Mifsud
Apr 10th 2009, 14:10
@Danien Galea
Could you please be specific, which dilettantes are you referring to? Profs Scicluna, Marlene Mizzi, Louis Grech, Dr Micallef Stafrace or Dr Attard Montaldo perhaps? The PN has a far weeker candidacy and its seems that the only shining star is Dr Busuttil. We can judge the performance of the PL and PN candidates and it will be easy to decide who did better. There is a very good array to choose from and we need people who can make their voice heard.
Edwin Mifsud
Apr 9th 2009, 09:22
@Joe Zammit
"Catholic Malta first and foremost" Can't agree more with you on that one.
"against divorce, same-sex unions and other evils." Mr. Joe Zammit
"let him he who is without sin cast the first stone". Jesus Christ
Who on earth do you thing you are to judge other people and speak on GOD's behalf?
Josephine Cassar
Apr 8th 2009, 21:31
I hope the electorate will choose wisely : no choosing those who say the EU has not done enough and then voting in favour of Guantanamo prisoners here or absenting themselves-as happened 2 weeks ago- so as not appear to vote NO. After all the young should have the courage of your convictions. I would like to see how many sessions our representatives attended or absented themselves from too. and look carefully at what they are really and legally proposing,; then it will be no use blaming the gov.
Joe Zammit
Apr 8th 2009, 21:28
First and foremost we want to know the moral values that each candidate embraces. The great majority of Maltese and Gozitans are Catholic and are against divorce, abortion, euthanasia, same-sex unions and other evils. The great majority are for progress according to the law of God and his Catholic Church. We don't want any EU elected member to vote in favour of any evil condemned by God and his Church.
Catholic Malta first and foremost == Malta Kattolika l-ewwel u qabel kollox
Damian Galea
Apr 8th 2009, 20:25
Agree with Cassar. Lets hope we get competent people up there. Give me 5 like Simon Busuttil and I will vote them anytime, no matter to which party they belong. Problem is PL have fielded a lot of dilettantes. In Malta's political set-up it is impossible to have candidates on each Group. But at least we can try to elect the candidates which would have some respect in the Socialist and in the Peoples party.
Josephine Cassar
Apr 8th 2009, 19:02
I agree with Dr. Zammit. It should not be a protest vote but one should see what each party and their representaives are offering before casting their vote: we do not want abstainers or no-show as these are going to affect the next 5 years in the EU. @Dillon: no use getting another representive in another group when these present articles which go against our principles or urging us to veto and then not getting funds for example. The persons most against the EU are the ones who benefitted the most without doing much while representing us. This does not depend on the gov alone. We do not want the shame of helsinki and anyway, you cannot do it too often as it defeats its purpose. Take care whom you vote for and what they are offering or how they performed
Dr. John Zammit
Apr 8th 2009, 14:26
If this happens, then Malta will be wasting another five years because it is of the utmost importance that the five/six Maltese MEPs be distributed in at least four European Parliament major political groups: EPP, PES, ALDE/ELDR and European Greens to have a stronger say in the EU. Before the Maltese and Gozitans go to vote I appeal to all so that this time they vote cleverly and also not to forget to elect at least two women.
Oisin Jones-Dillon
Apr 8th 2009, 12:01
Given that Malta will, in fact, be electing 6 MEPs on June 6th, these figures, as presented, point to a PN 3 seat / PL 3 seat EP result, meaning that Malta will continue to be represented in only two of the European Parliament blocs, namely, the PN EPP parliamentary group and the Socialist PSE group.
The woefully inadequate support from the EU regarding irregular immigration urgently warrants a much wider spread of representation, among other European Parliamentary groups, should Malta seriously seek to further and advance her national interests at EU institutional level.
Oisin Jones-Dillon
J.Bonnici
Apr 8th 2009, 11:50
And who will get the sixth seat (if there is one)?