Labour to win EP elections with three MEPs

The Labour Party looks set to recapture the majority of Maltese seats in the European Parliament in the June elections, according to an EU-wide election forecast.

The predictions show the Labour Party (PL) will again elect three MEPs, the Nationalist Party will retain its current two seats but Alternattiva Demokratika will not manage a repeat of its good showing five years ago and would suffer a drastic loss of votes.

The forecast, published in Brussels yesterday by Burson-Marsteller, a leading global public relations and communications consultancy, is based on a scientific model developed by researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Dublin's Trinity College.

The model factors in the share of votes won by each national party in all the previous EP elections since 1979 and opinion polls modified by information about vote shares in the previous national election. It also takes into consideration whether a party is in government, whether a national party is anti-European and whether the European election is held within a year of a previous national election.

According to the resulting forecast, next June, Labour will manage to secure 50.6 per cent of the votes and elect three MEPs, gaining 2.2 per cent over 2004 when it obtained a relative majority of 48.4 per cent.

The PN will win 5.2 per cent more votes than in 2004, pushing its share up to 45 per cent from 39.8 per cent and retain two MEPs.

The big loser will be AD, which will not only fail to elect an MEP but see its share of the vote slashed by more than half, according to the study. After posting its best ever performance in a national election by winning 10 per cent of the vote in 2004, particularly at the PN's expense, its share is predicted to shrink to 4.4 per cent in June.

On an EU level, the study predicts a status quo, with the EPP group, in which the PN is affiliated, retaining the majority in the Brussels chamber followed by the Socialists.

The forecast is that the EPP will win about 249 seats, with its share of seats down from 37 to 33 per cent of MEPs, while the Socialist PSE group will win about 209 seats, representing a slight increase from 27 to 29 per cent of MEPs.

The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe looks set to secure about 87 seats and the new European Conservative group, composed of British Conservatives and their allies, is predicted to be the fourth largest group, with about 58 seats.

Roughly the same number of anti-European and extreme right MEPs (about 45 in total) will occupy seats in the new Parliament, according to the study.