Prague's faltering EU presidency

The collapse of the Czech government last Tuesday after a parliamentary no-confidence vote damages the country's EU presidency and could not come at a worse time for Europe.

"The Czech presidency is over, on a political level at least," Jiri Pehe, former adviser to ex-president Vaclav Havel, told the international media last week.

Many EU observers were sceptical when Prague took over the presidency in January at a time when the global economic crisis required strong leadership in Europe. The Czech Republic had no experience of the EU presidency. It had a very weak coalition government and the ruling Civic Democrat Party led by Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek had a strong eurosceptic wing.

Unlike what happened in Latvia and Hungary, this latest political crisis had nothing to do with the global economic situation, but was partly to do with ideology. A small group of dissidents, two from the Civic Democrat Party and two from the Greens, joined forces with the left-wing opposition Social Democrats and Communists to vote against government. One Civic Democrat dissident MP said he had voted against the government because his party had supported the Lisbon Treaty, so that should be of some concern to Brussels.

Of course, the EU will not grind to a halt - the European Commission and Parliament ensure a measure of continuity - even though both institutions are approaching the end of their terms - and Topolanek remains Prime Minister until Vaclav Klaus, the eurosceptic Czech president, appoints a successor.

Klaus could appoint a caretaker government led by Topolanek or someone else, which will oversee the EU presidency until the end of June. Alternatively, he could call a general election, by far the worst option as far EU presidency is concerned. Whatever Klaus does, however, the EU is weaker as a result of this crisis.

It is the EU presidency, after all, which must give a lead during a crisis and set the agenda during its six-month term of office, and the Czech government is hardly in a state to do that. If there is a time when strong leadership is needed from the EU presidency - to co-ordinate Europe's response to fight the recession - it is now.

The EU's ability to take the lead in foreign policy is also likely to be weakened as a result of the Czech crisis. Consequently, we can expect countries such as Germany, Britain and France to take foreign policy initiatives in areas such as dealing with Russia or the Middle East peace process.

Topolanek, in his role as caretaker prime minister, will greet US President Barack Obama in Prague on Sunday during the EU-US summit. Unfortunately, Topolanek's comment last Wednesday, when addressing the European Parliament, that the US was "on the road to hell" in the way it responded to the global recession was hardly the way to open a new chapter in relations between the EU and the US.

Topolanek, however, has always been somewhat outspoken. In the days when he opposed the then European Constitution (before it was amended and called the Lisbon Treaty) he referred to this treaty as "shit".

This Czech crisis has created another headache for Brussels - the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The treaty was approved by the Czech lower house of Parliament last month but still has to be given the go-ahead by the Senate. Although the Czech upper house was expected to vote on the treaty next month, this could be put on hold because of the domestic political situation. It is anyone's guess whether a different Czech Prime Minister - if Topolanek is replaced - will push for the treaty's ratification.

Alexandr Vondra, the Czech Deputy Prime Minister, said last week that Prague's ratification could be more problematic after the vote of no confidence in the government. To make matters worse, President Klaus opposes the treaty, so he will hardly be urging the Senate to ratify it.

Yet another complication is the fact that the Czech presidency was engaged in negotiations with Ireland over Dublin's second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty which is to take place in October. Ireland voted against the treaty last year and was in talks with the EU presidency over guarantees in areas such as taxation and neutrality that would make Lisbon more acceptable to Irish voters. Irish Foreign Minister Michael Martin said the collapse of the Czech government made his country's talks on treaty "more complex".

Ironically, the Czech crisis highlights the need for a more stable, semi-permanent EU presidency -as foreseen in the Lisbon Treaty, whose fate now lies in Prague's hands. Of course, the present rotating presidency has its advantages, such as highlighting the EU's diversity.

In addition, the Czech presidency - despite its faults - should be commended for defending the single market and rejecting protectionism during the global recession. On the whole, however, the case for a semi-permanent EU presidency - which is not affected by a country's domestic political situation - is now stronger than ever.