North Korea steps up missile test preparations

Chinese fishing vessels have moved out of waters near a disputed sea border between the two Koreas, a South Korean military official said yesterday, possibly signalling a North Korean short-range missile test is imminent.

In another move that could stoke tensions, US and South Korean news reports said the North has made further preparations to test its longest-range Taepodong-2 missile, with a launch possible in about a month.

North Korea usually orders its vessels to stay out of Yellow Sea waters off its west coast when it conducts short-range missile tests. China is the closest thing the North can claim as a major ally and is the impoverished state's biggest benefactor.

"The (Chinese) fishing boats have disappeared, but no other unusual moves have yet been detected," said an official with South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff who asked not to be named.

During its last test launch of short-range missiles in that area in October 2008, the North issued a no-sail order to its ships a few days before firing off missiles, South Korean government officials have said.

North Korean short-range missiles have a range of about 100-150 kilometres, which means they can hit all of the Seoul area and many US military bases in South Korea.

Experts say the North may have hundreds of short-range missiles, and that the missiles have a proven capability due to recent successful tests.

CNN reported on its website ( http://edition.cnn.com/ ) that North Korea also appeared to have positioned telemetry equipment at an east coast missile base it used when it last launched its Taepodong-2 missile in 2006.

The missile, which has never successfully flown but is designed to hit US territory, fizzled seconds after it was fired in that test.

There was no evidence of a Taepodong-2 being moved to a launch pad, the US official was quoted as saying.

"Vehicles carrying equipment needed for missile launch were moving towards the (east cost) Musudan-ri base," Yonhap news agency quoted a South Korean government source as saying.

The source said that if the North continued at its current pace, it could launch a Taepodong-2 in a month. South Korean officials were not immediately available for comment.

Impoverished North Korea, angry at the hard-line policies of the South's government, in recent weeks has stepped up tension by threatening to reduce its wealthy southern neighbour to ashes. Analysts said the steps were aimed at putting pressure on the South and at attracting the notice of new US President Barack Obama, who is sending Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the region next week to discuss regional security concerns.

"We are hopeful that some of the behaviour that we have seen coming from North Korea in the last few weeks is not a precursor of any action that would up the ante or threaten the stability and peace and security of the neighbours in the region," Mrs Clinton told reporters in Washington on Tuesday.

The US military stepped up its monitoring of North Korea this week amid concerns of possible missile launches, a US military official said.

Why would N. Korea test fire its missiles?

North Korea appears to have made further preparations to test its longest-range Taepodong-2 missile as well as short-range missiles.

Here are questions and answers as to why North Korea might test launch one of its missiles:

What does the North stand to gain through testing its longest-range missile?

If the launch is successful, North Korea will have a missile with a maximum estimated range of 6,700 kilometres, designed to carry a nuclear warhead that could hit US territory, although not the continental 48 states. This would, for the first time, pose a direct security threat by the North to the US.

The North, which already has hundreds of rudimentary missiles, would be able to test its multi-stage rocket systems and increase its ability to produce long-range missiles.

How big a threat is the Taepodong-2?

The only time North Korea has fired the missile was in 2006 when it managed just a few seconds of controlled flight and broke apart in less than a minute.

It has a crude multi-stage design and poor guidance system and takes weeks to prepare for launch. US spy satellites can easily monitor the preparations and it should be relatively easy to destroy long before launch.

Experts have said North Korea does not yet have the technology to miniaturise a nuclear device to use as a warhead. But the North has been working on placing biological and chemical weapons on missiles.

Why would it test a short-range missile?

North Korean short-range missiles, thought to number in the hundreds and with ranges of about 100-150 kilometres, can hit all of the Seoul area and many US military bases in South Korea. They have been successfully tested.

North Korea times its short-range missile launches for periods of increased tension to send political messages. A launch would be intended to grab the attention of new US President Barack Obama and could dominate the agenda of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is making a trip to Asia next week.

The North is also trying to put pressure on South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who took office a year ago and has angered his destitute neighbour by cutting off what once had been a free flow of unconditional aid.

What about its mid-range missiles?

North Korea has several hundred Rodong missiles, with ranges that can hit all of South Korea and most of Japan. A launch of one of these ballistic missiles would violate international provisions and be much more provocative than a short-range test.

What does North Korea risk by testing the missiles?

Another failed Taepodong-2 launch would be a major embarrassment for Pyongyang which has little beyond its military threat to win concessions from the outside world. That, and the high cost for the impoverished state, may make it reluctant to risk a second launch.

Its leaders may be happy to simply imply a threat by moving around missile-related equipment, knowing it will be seen by US intelligence and raise alarm within the new US government.

On the other hand, the international community has few options left to punish the North for a launch of any of its ballistic missiles. North Korea is already subject to UN sanctions stemming from its July 2006 ballistic missile test that included Rodong missiles and the Taepodong-2 and a nuclear test a few months after that.

The United States has already called for a suspension of aid promised under a six-way nuclear deal while Japan and South Korea have blocked channels that sent cash and food.

When might a launch take place?

A short-range missile launch could happen at any time.

The North may time a Taepodong-2 or Rodong launch to coincide with a meeting on March 8 of its Supreme People's Assembly. Its state media has been heralding the event and the role leader Kim Jong-il will play.

President Kim suffered a suspected stroke in August that raised questions about his grip on power.

It would be difficult for the North to launch a Taepodong-2 by the time of Mr Kim's 67th birthday on February 16. Another possible date is April 25, the anniversary of its Korea People's Army