Sixth sense and common sense

Come June 6, Malta will be electing five members in the European Parliament. A sixth seat will be available if and when the Lisbon Treaty enters into force after it was stalled as a result of a referendum in Ireland. All the other EU countries have already done so, except for the Czech Republic and Poland, which are expected to do so soon.

So the question arises as to when and how will Malta elect its sixth seat if the Treaty enters into force.

The first part of the question was answered by the European Council meeting last December when EU countries, not least on the insistence of Malta's Prime Minister, agreed to increase the number of MEPs of the member states for which the number was set to increase (there are 12 of them) as soon as possible without having to wait for the next election due in 2014. They agreed that this modification should enter into force, if possible, during the year 2010.

The second part of the question is as yet unanswered, namely how will Malta elect its sixth seat should this become available after next June.

Writing in The Times (Timely Political Sixth Sense, January 8), Labour Party (PL) leader Joseph Muscat stated that the candidate who places de facto sixth in June's elections should be Malta's sixth MEP if and when the Lisbon Treaty enters into force. He states that he intends to move a resolution in the House of Representatives in this sense.

Tellingly, he also reveals that the PL has been secretly discussing this matter with Alternattiva Demokratika and that AD already agrees with a resolution to this effect.

How interesting!

Now look back at the results of the 2004 European Parliament election and what do you find? Surprise, surprise, Arnold Cassola was the candidate who placed de facto sixth in that election.

So using Dr Muscat's sixth sense, Dr Cassola should get the sixth seat because the PL had no chance to get it in any case.

How generous of him!

Little surprise that the two have cuddled up together to agree on a resolution to this effect.

Now let us put aside Dr Muscat's sixth sense and apply common sense. And the rule of law.

According to our law, the number of members of the European Parliament to be elected shall be that established by the Treaty. This means that we must elect five seats assigned to us by the Accession Treaty in 2004 (which itself reflected an arrangement adopted in the Nice Treaty back in 2000).

So there is no question as to how many seats we can elect come June.

Our law goes on to state that, for a candidate to be elected s/he require a sufficient number of votes that is known as the quota. The quota is determined by dividing the total number of valid votes by the number of seats to be filled, plus one.

This means that, if we are electing six seats instead of five, the number of valid votes must be divided by seven to determine the quota. In 2004, because we were electing five seats the total number of valid votes (245,722) was divided by six and the quota was set at 40,954.

But if we had to elect six seats instead of five, the valid votes would have been divided by seven and the quota would have gone down to as many as 35,103 votes. With that quota, Dr Muscat himself would have been elected on first count. But he was not because the quota was higher given that it was set for five seats and not six.

But with a quota for six seats, in 2004, the PN would not only have elected two seats but would also have had an additional first count surplus of as many as 27,482 votes. This is markedly higher than AD's remarkable first count tally of 22,938 votes.

What this means in practice is that, with a quota for six seats instead of five, the candidate who would have placed de facto sixth in 2004 would not have been Dr Cassola but may well have been... surprise, surprise... PN candidate Joanna Drake!

If this is Dr Muscat's sixth sense, I would rather stick to common sense.

And the rule of law.

Readers who would like to ask questions to be answered in this column can send an e-mail, identifying themselves, to contact@simonbusuttil.eu or through www.simonbusuttil.eu.

Dr Busuttil is a Nationalist member of the European Parliament.