Prospects for 2009

The year 2009 is already being perceived as a time when further uncertainty and volatility is likely to dominate international relations after the rollercoaster of a year that has just ended. All political efforts will remain focused on shoring up the fragile economic landscape that has been through one of its most unstable periods in contemporary history.

The historic years of 80 and 20 years ago provide us with some guidelines that can help us to anticipate developments in the year ahead. Will 2009 reflect a turn of events that led to the Great Depression of 1929? Will the shake-out in the international system result in a sea-change of the magnitude of 1989 when the Cold War ended?

The economic and financial downturn of recent months is already having a major negative impact on productivity and a ripple effect of increasing unemployment and collapse of consumer confidence. The severe downturn could become much worse if the negative psychological mood that has emerged becomes more dominant and gives way to a more protectionist attitude in the international political economy.

The G20 summit last November demonstrated the necessary multilateral strategy that is required to avoid a collapse of the international economic system. But it is far from certain whether such a concerted approach will prevent states from ultimately adopting more of a protectionist attitude with eventual disastrous consequences.

This year will also see the start of the Barack Obama presidency in the United States. The new president comes into the White House with very high expectations and faces a complex domestic and international agenda. Obama has, however, already signalled that he comprehends that nature of the task facing him by putting into place a top-notch administration of experts. The choice of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State is most telling as it has the potential to equip America with two top leaders at a time when the only superpower will require all the leadership it can muster to cope with the multitude of existing challenges.

Turning to the Middle East, a sense of déjà vu is again settling in. The escalation of hostilities between Israel and the Palestinians highlights clearly that the Palestinian faction of Hamas has not been handled well by Israel, Europe or the United States in recent years.

This year must see a call for an immediate concerted effort by the Quartet to try and make headway towards a permanent settlement of the conflict by creating a viable Palestinian state. The elections due to be held in the next few weeks in the West Bank and in Israel, and the arrival of a new president in the White House provide the newly elected leaders with a mandate to proceed with diplomatic efforts aimed at brokering a peace settlement. It is an opportunity they must seize.

Numerous other geopolitical challenges will also require international diplomatic attention. Ensuring the non-proliferation of nuclear capabilities in Iran and managing relations between the two nuclear states of Pakistan and India will be crucial.

The continuing war in Iraq will enter a new phase with the gradual withdrawal of American combat troops from this theatre of operation. The shift in America's foreign policy strategy will see the redeployment of troops to Afghanistan as the military establishment focus against the Taliban. The United States will also seek to engage Europe more directly in this conflict.

In Europe, the EU presidencies of the Czech Republic and Sweden will focus their political attention on Ireland's successful ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and European Parliamentary elections in June.

In the Euro-Mediterranean region, the successful outcome of French president Nicolas Sarkozy's Union for the Mediterranean initiative provides us with a very dynamic agenda. The setting up of a Union for the Mediterranean Secretariat in Barcelona will add further coherence to management of Euro-Med relations. The projectdriven nature of the Union for the Mediterranean in key strategic areas will ensure that more tangible results are achievable.

The year 2009 is therefore certain to be very challenging, a year that calls for true leadership on the global stage. Twenty years since the end of the Cold War, the post-Cold War contours are becoming clearer as the rise of China, India and other powers becomes more obvious and the relative decline of America more apparent.

Turbulence in the economic sector and chaos in the political sector are signs of a changing world order where the West is surrendering centuries of economic and political hegemony. This year will witness a further ushering in of a globalisation process where weakened states and international organisations are seeking to find their place in the emerging multipolar system.

Prof. Calleya is an International Relations Analyst.