After the year of the bitch

The year 2008 crawled out with a whimper leaving the New Year a legacy which made it creep in wondering where its inherited problems were going to lead it.

Last year was the year of the bitch, unleashing a global tsunami which began sweeping all in its path. The world's major economies, hitherto striding along proud and tall, tumbled like nine pins. Growth petered out and went into reverse, signalling a recession that could threaten to turn into a slump. Even where growth was still notched up, particularly in China, it was not enough to meet the needs it is intended to support. The global economy ended up without any traditional engine to pull it forward and haul it out of the rapidly expanding doldrums.

Unemployment began to mount. All of which led to forecasts that 2009 could be a very tough year indeed. It is one during which millions of people will be moving in uncharted territory. Governments, troubled by what happened in the year of the bitch and by the quality of the early puppies forecast for 2009, will be intensifying their plans to try to restart their economies with stimulatory packages the likes of which haven't been seen for close to 80 years.

Will the next 12 months, then, be further doom and gloom, more of the same, plus a lot worse? That is what the early signs suggest. And yet, there is hope abroad. The messages by many a country's leaders had two common themes. One was realistic recognition of the havoc caused last year, brought about essentially by unbridled greed by bankers and - yes, they share in the blame - investors. The other was a theme of hope - we have been through bad times before; not all is lost; downturns bring about their opportunities; if there is a will, there is bound to be a way.

These themes were also common to the messages put out by our own political and spiritual leaders to usher in the new year. Malta has not been very badly hit by the turmoil of 2008. Certainly, not as much as neighbours and distant friends alike.

Some factories, mostly dependent on the car industry, took a tumble. Tourism was battered in the last quarter of the old year. Consumer demand slowed down, deterred by perceptions of bad economic times ahead and frightened off by the confused implications of the new water and electricity rates. But we did not touch any pits during 2008. If anything, the worst is yet to come.

Will it? If the international economy does not recover, indeed, it might decline further, we will undoubtedly be hit. No one, let alone tiny Malta, would withstand and emerge unscathed from the wrath of that tsunami.

Nevertheless, it should not be taken for granted that only negatives will flow our way.

The theme of hope expressed by political leaders, including our own, was not constructed solely out of fingers tightly crossed. Shrewd leaders all, they are in touch with the real economy and have access to deeper analysis than is available to most of us. They would also be familiar with the thoughts being put forward by some of the more insightful economic gurus who are not hesitating to transmit their own message of hope.

They build on the old realism that every threat brings its own opportunities. They see the international financial and economic communities passing through a strong period of restructuring. Some of that will be imposed by the tsunami. But there will also be recognition of errors committed in the recent past, of slackness, short-sightedness, clumsiness, of - again - greed.

A new young breed of entrepreneur is forecast. One that will not require venture endowments worth millions of dollars to fund it. Existing enterprises which survive will be reborn. But many new initiatives will be hatched, forcing out new brilliant ideas, stronger competition.

Stimulus will come from brave individuals, utilising their own human capital and early meagre resources, not from governments alone.

Governments will review their own position, even more so than they had to do in 2008.

Malta too will have its opportunities. Some local and foreign investment might dry up, but there could be different flows soon enough, if only we can reach out to tap them.

Tourism will remain under the hammer, but it will not dry up. Promotion targeting the changed markets will be of the essence. A steady hand will be needed on the government tiller, one not given to flourishes and rhetoric. An objectively critical opposition will be required more than ever. More than ever still we will require basic sense - to ensure that the democratic clash and contrast of ideas is not suspended, but also to realise that we should never disagree just for the sake disagreeing.

It's going to be a tough year, but the theme of hope must and can remain part of it.