Migration outstrips birth rate in the EU
Malta has crude natural change rate of 1.5%, crude net migration rate of 4.2%
The EU population grew by 4.4 per 1000 inhabitants in 2008, due to natural population growth of +1.1‰ and net migration of +3.3‰, according to Eurostat figures issued today. In total, the EU27 population is estimated to have increased by 2.2 million in 2008 to 499.7 million.
The highest birth rates were in Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and Estonia.
Live births in the EU27 were estimated to be 5.4 million in 2008, corresponding to a crude birth rate of 10.8 per 1000 inhabitants. The highest birth rates were for Ireland (18.1%), the United Kingdom (13.0%), France (12.9%), Estonia (12.2%), Sweden (11.9%) and Denmark (11.8%). Germany (8.3%), Malta and Austria (both 9.2%), Bulgaria (9.4%), Italy and Portugal (both 9.6%)..
There were estimated to have been 4.8 million deaths in the EU27 in 2008, corresponding to a crude death rate of 9.7 per 1000 inhabitants. The highest death rates in 2008 were estimated for Bulgaria (14.2‰), Latvia (14.0‰), Lithuania (13.2‰) and Hungary (13.0‰). Ireland (6.1‰) has the lowest rate, followed by Cyprus (6.6‰), Luxembourg (6.9‰) and Malta (7.7‰).
Consequently, the highest natural growth of the population was in Ireland (+12.0 per 1000 inhabitants), well ahead of France (+4.5‰), Luxembourg (+4.3‰), Cyprus (+3.9‰) and the United Kingdom (+3.6‰). Eight Member States had a negative natural growth, with the largest falls in Bulgaria (-4.8‰), Latvia (-3.2‰), Hungary (-3.1‰), Lithuania (-2.6‰) and Germany (-2.0‰).
In 2008, three quarters of the increase in the EU population was estimated to have come from migration. In relative terms, Ireland (+14.1 per 1000 inhabitants), Slovenia (+12.6‰), Luxembourg (+11.9‰), Cyprus (+11.7‰) and Spain (+10.2‰) had the largest net migratory flows, while Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland had more emigration than immigration.
In conclusion, the population is expected to have increased in twenty Member States and decreased in seven, with considerable variations between Member States. The largest relative increases are estimated for Ireland (+26.1‰), Luxembourg (+16.2‰), Cyprus (+15.5‰), Slovenia (+13.5‰) and Spain (+12.5‰), and the largest decreases in Bulgaria (-5.0‰), Lithuania (-4.8‰) and Latvia (-4.3‰).
The figures for Malta show a population of 412,000, a crude birth rate of 9.2%, a crude death rate of 7.7%, a crude natural change rate of 1.5%, crude net migration rate of 4.2% and a total crude change rate of 5.6%.
Population change in the EU Member States, candidate and EFTA countries in 2008
|
Population |
Crude birth rate |
Crude death rate |
Crude natural change rate |
Crude net migration rate |
Crude total change rate |
Population |
|
|
EU27 |
497,455.0 |
10.8 |
9.7 |
1.1 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
499,673.3 |
|
EA15 + Slovakia |
326,921.1 |
10.4 |
9.3 |
1.2 |
4.0 |
5.1 |
328,597.3 |
|
Belgium |
10,666.9 |
11.5 |
9.5 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
6.9 |
10,741.0 |
|
Bulgaria |
7,640.2 |
9.4 |
14.2 |
-4.8 |
-0.2 |
-5.0 |
7,602.1 |
|
Czech Republic |
10,381.1 |
11.3 |
10.1 |
1.2 |
7.7 |
9.0 |
10,474.6 |
|
Denmark |
5,475.8 |
11.8 |
9.9 |
2.0 |
6.0 |
7.9 |
5,519.3 |
|
Germany |
82,217.8 |
8.3 |
10.3 |
-2.0 |
0.1 |
-1.9 |
82,062.2 |
|
Estonia |
1,340.9 |
12.2 |
12.8 |
-0.6 |
0.1 |
-0.4 |
1,340.3 |
|
Ireland |
4,401.3 |
18.1 |
6.1 |
12.0 |
14.1 |
26.1 |
4,517.8 |
|
Greece |
11,213.8 |
9.8 |
9.3 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
11,262.5 |
|
Spain |
45,283.3 |
11.0 |
8.7 |
2.3 |
10.2 |
12.5 |
45,853.0 |
|
France |
63,753.1 |
12.9 |
8.4 |
4.5 |
1.0 |
5.5 |
64,105.1 |
|
Italy |
59,619.3 |
9.6 |
9.8 |
-0.2 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
60,090.4 |
|
Cyprus |
789.3 |
10.4 |
6.6 |
3.9 |
11.7 |
15.5 |
801.6 |
|
Latvia |
2,270.9 |
10.8 |
14.0 |
-3.2 |
-1.1 |
-4.3 |
2,261.1 |
|
Lithuania |
3,366.4 |
10.5 |
13.2 |
-2.6 |
-2.1 |
-4.8 |
3,350.4 |
|
Luxembourg |
483.8 |
11.2 |
6.9 |
4.3 |
11.9 |
16.2 |
491.7 |
|
Hungary |
10,045.4 |
9.9 |
13.0 |
-3.1 |
1.5 |
-1.5 |
10,029.9 |
|
Malta |
410.3 |
9.2 |
7.7 |
1.5 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
412.6 |
|
Netherlands |
16,405.4 |
11.3 |
8.2 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
4.6 |
16,481.1 |
|
Austria |
8,331.9 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
8,356.7 |
|
Poland |
38,115.6 |
10.8 |
10.0 |
0.8 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
38,130.3 |
|
Portugal |
10,617.6 |
9.6 |
9.7 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
10,631.8 |
|
Romania |
21,528.6 |
10.4 |
11.9 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
-1.5 |
21,496.7 |
|
Slovenia |
2,025.9 |
10.0 |
9.1 |
0.9 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
2,053.4 |
|
Slovakia |
5,401.0 |
10.4 |
9.8 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
5,411.1 |
|
Finland |
5,300.5 |
11.2 |
9.2 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
4.6 |
5,325.1 |
|
Sweden |
9,182.9 |
11.9 |
9.9 |
2.0 |
6.3 |
8.3 |
9,259.0 |
|
United Kingdom |
61,186.0 |
13.0 |
9.3 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
6.9 |
61,612.3 |
|
Croatia |
4,436.4 |
9.6 |
11.9 |
-2.3 |
1.3 |
-1.0 |
4,432.0 |
|
Former Yug. Rep. of Macedonia |
2,045.2 |
11.0 |
9.2 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
2,048.9 |
|
Turkey |
70,586.3 |
: |
: |
: |
: |
: |
: |
|
Iceland |
313.4 |
14.5 |
5.8 |
8.7 |
13.9 |
22.6 |
320.5 |
|
Liechtenstein |
35.4 |
9.6 |
5.9 |
3.8 |
5.6 |
9.4 |
35.7 |
|
Norway |
4,737.2 |
12.6 |
8.7 |
3.9 |
9.6 |
13.5 |
4,801.4 |
|
Switzerland |
7,593.5 |
10.0 |
8.0 |
2.0 |
7.7 |
9.7 |
7,667.7 |
: Data not available
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B. Cachia
Dec 16th 2008, 09:44
@ John Lane
Thanks for the link. The figures in the 18th November report refer to 2006 (or the latest available year), whereas yesterday's report uses estimates for 2008. However, I wouldn't exclude that they use the same definition of 'migrant' - indeed, they probably do.
If that's the case, the report presents only part of the demographic picture, especially with regard to Malta. Net illegal migration has been in the region of 3‰ per annum over the past few years.
John Lane
Dec 15th 2008, 20:52
@ B. Cachia
I used the Eurostat figures in their 18 November 2008 report entitled "Recent Migration Trends." It can be found on the Eurostat site by searching for it under the term "migration."
Note that what Eurostat measures here is people who settle in various European countries. It does *not* measure arrivals which are touristy or illegal.
B. Cachia
Dec 15th 2008, 17:45
@ John Lane
Can you please provide a link to that data? At first sight, it would seem that if the percentages you quote apply to 2008 then this study is probably grossly understating the number of non-EU immigrants (net or gross) for this particular year.
Incidentally, the percentages quoted in the title of the article itself should have been 0.15% and 0.42%, as the Eurostat figures were provided per thousand (‰).
John Lane
Dec 15th 2008, 15:58
Eric Gahn asked where the immigrants come from.
The latest Eurostat figures show Maltese immigration to be 64% Maltese and 36% non-Maltese. The latter include immigration from other EU countries like Britain. (Malta has not provided Eurostat with the number of Maltese citizens who migrated to other countries.)
It is likely that many readers of this story will confuse the influx of illegal immigrants from North Africa will the free movement of people within the European Union.
Kevin Zammit
Dec 15th 2008, 13:57
Clearly EU heavy weights are not helping out with the immigration problem especially Germany.
C Attard
Dec 15th 2008, 13:49
@ Nicole Cole: are you serious? For your information, in one of the three Member States with the highest birth rates (the UK), same sex marriage is legal, so I don't see the point you're trying to make. Not to mention that encouraging couples to get married simply in order to increase the birth rate doesn't exactly make very strong marriages...
Nicole Cole
Dec 15th 2008, 13:06
OMG. This is a real shock.
EU governments and all social entities concerned have only two options:
Encourage youngsters to get married and discourage same sex marriage.
Eric Gahn
Dec 15th 2008, 12:40
Where are the migrants from?